bayesRatings

Cardinals at Twins

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 1:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final STL 9 – MIN 6
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL2200005009130
MIN000220011670
Team box
STL·MIN
13
hits
7
4
home runs
3
3
walks
5
5
strikeouts
8
143
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ivan HerreraSTL2-3223
Blaze JordanSTL2-4213
Byron BuxtonMIN2-4111
Royce LewisMIN2-4111
Luke KeaschallMIN1-4112
Pedro PagesSTL3-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew LiberatoreSTL4.15414
Matt Svanson (W)STL1.20002
Connor PrielippMIN6.07422
Justin Lawrence (L)MIN0.24402

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +5
STL +5
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · STL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 52%, MIN 48% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
STL by 0.5
Expected score
STL 5.1 – 4.6 MIN
Expected total
9.7
CardinalsThe matchupTwins
−109Our fair odds+109
5.1Expected runs4.6
+0.01Power rating−0.14
4.6Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game5.2
8.3Hits / game8.0
1.15Home runs / game1.15
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
37−30Season record32−39
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10952%−11653.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10948%−10751.8%———
SpreadSTL by 0.5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.5our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 0.5 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byMIN wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more41%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·MIN
Jun 12 at MIN
last game
Jun 12 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
STL·MIN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.6
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.2
37−30
season record
32−39
19−16
home record
19−18
18−14
away record
13−21
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.0
1.15
home runs / game
1.15
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.48
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

STL · MIN · 80 days
St. Louis CardinalsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Jun 12at MINMIN 9 − 8
Mar 30, 2025at STLSTL 9 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Mar 27, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 3
Aug 25, 2024at MINSTL 3 − 2
Aug 24, 2024at MINMIN 6 − 0
Aug 23, 2024at MINSTL 6 − 1
Aug 3, 2023at STLMIN 5 − 3
Aug 2, 2023at STLSTL 7 − 3
Aug 1, 2023at STLMIN 3 − 2

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 12at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 11at NYM4 − 5L
Jun 10at NYM9 − 2W
Jun 9at NYM7 − 0W
Jun 7vs CIN5 − 3W
Jun 6vs CIN6 − 5W
Jun 5vs CIN10 − 3W
Jun 3vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 2vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 1vs TEX1 − 2L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 12vs STL9 − 8W
Jun 11at DET0 − 11L
Jun 10at DET6 − 4W
Jun 9at DET4 − 10L
Jun 7vs KC5 − 6L
Jun 6vs KC2 − 3L
Jun 5vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 4vs KC6 − 8L
Jun 3vs CHW0 − 8L
Jun 2vs CHW6 − 4W