bayesRatings

Cardinals at Mets

MLB · Thursday, Jun 11 · 12:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final STL 4 – NYM 5
← MLB / Jun 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL130000000470
NYM300010105100
Team box
STL·NYM
7
hits
10
3
home runs
3
2
walks
0
9
strikeouts
9
138
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jared YoungNYM2-4112
Juan SotoNYM2-4211
Bo BichetteNYM1-4112
Lars NootbaarSTL2-4111
Jimmy CrooksSTL1-4112
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hunter DobbinsSTL4.17305
JoJo Romero (L)STL1.11101
Christian ScottNYM4.27416
Brooks Raley (W)NYM1.00011
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 2 · STL 1lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 50%, NYM 50% · Updated Jun 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.3 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
8.6
CardinalsThe matchupMets
−100Our fair odds+100
4.2Expected runs4.3
+0.03Power rating−0.04
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game4.3
8.2Hits / game7.6
1.12Home runs / game1.01
3.4Walks drawn / game2.8
37−28Season record29−38
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10050%+12444.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+10050%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%
← STL wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more37%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more27%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLHunter Dobbins SP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 7 Kstarted
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 0.55 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·NYM
Jun 10 at NYM
last game
Jun 10 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
STL·NYM
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.3
37−28
season record
29−38
19−16
home record
15−17
18−12
away record
14−21
W6
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.6
1.12
home runs / game
1.01
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.49
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

STL · NYM · 78 days
St. Louis CardinalsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jun 10at NYMSTL 9 − 2
Jun 9at NYMSTL 7 − 0
Apr 1at STLSTL 2 − 1
Mar 31at STLSTL 3 − 0
Mar 30at STLNYM 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
May 2, 2025at STLNYM 9 − 3
Apr 20, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 0

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Jun 10at NYM9 − 2W
Jun 9at NYM7 − 0W
Jun 7vs CIN5 − 3W
Jun 6vs CIN6 − 5W
Jun 5vs CIN10 − 3W
Jun 3vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 2vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 1vs TEX1 − 2L
May 31vs CHC5 − 1W
May 30vs CHC1 − 6L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 10vs STL2 − 9L
Jun 9vs STL0 − 7L
Jun 7at SD7 − 3W
Jun 6at SD2 − 3L
Jun 5at SD5 − 0W
Jun 3at SEA7 − 1W
Jun 2at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 1at SEA2 − 3L
May 31vs MIA10 − 1W
May 30vs MIA6 − 1W