bayesRatings

Cardinals at Twins

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 7:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final STL 8 – MIN 9
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL1200004108120
MIN100012329110
Team box
STL·MIN
12
hits
11
1
home runs
4
3
walks
3
11
strikeouts
6
121
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Byron BuxtonMIN3-3311
Royce LewisMIN2-3212
Kody ClemensMIN1-3213
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4212
Jordan WalkerSTL1-5003
Brooks LeeMIN1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle LeahySTL5.08415
Ryne Stanek (L)STL1.13301
Joe RyanMIN6.06308
Anthony Banda (W)MIN0.21000
Andrew Morris (S)MIN1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · STL 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 53%, MIN 47% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
STL by 0.5
Expected score
STL 5.0 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.5
CardinalsThe matchupTwins
−112Our fair odds+112
5.0Expected runs4.5
+0.02Power rating−0.16
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game5.1
8.2Hits / game7.9
1.15Home runs / game1.11
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
37−29Season record31−39
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11253%+11446.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+11247%−13757.7%———
SpreadSTL by 0.5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.5our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 0.5 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 12%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byMIN wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more41%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·MIN
Jun 11 at NYM
last game
Jun 11 at DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
STL·MIN
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
37−29
season record
31−39
19−16
home record
18−18
18−13
away record
13−21
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
7.9
1.15
home runs / game
1.11
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.48
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

STL · MIN · 79 days
St. Louis CardinalsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 3−7
Mar 30, 2025at STLSTL 9 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Mar 27, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 3
Aug 25, 2024at MINSTL 3 − 2
Aug 24, 2024at MINMIN 6 − 0
Aug 23, 2024at MINSTL 6 − 1
Aug 3, 2023at STLMIN 5 − 3
Aug 2, 2023at STLSTL 7 − 3
Aug 1, 2023at STLMIN 3 − 2
Aug 1, 2021at STLSTL 7 − 3

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 11at NYM4 − 5L
Jun 10at NYM9 − 2W
Jun 9at NYM7 − 0W
Jun 7vs CIN5 − 3W
Jun 6vs CIN6 − 5W
Jun 5vs CIN10 − 3W
Jun 3vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 2vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 1vs TEX1 − 2L
May 31vs CHC5 − 1W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 11at DET0 − 11L
Jun 10at DET6 − 4W
Jun 9at DET4 − 10L
Jun 7vs KC5 − 6L
Jun 6vs KC2 − 3L
Jun 5vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 4vs KC6 − 8L
Jun 3vs CHW0 − 8L
Jun 2vs CHW6 − 4W
Jun 1vs CHW9 − 6W