bayesRatings

Giants at Marlins

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 12:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final SF 1 – MIA 2
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF001000000140
MIA01010000250
Team box
SF·MIA
4
hits
5
0
home runs
1
3
walks
1
6
strikeouts
5
103
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle StowersMIA1-2211
Casey SchmittSF2-4001
Otto LopezMIA1-3001
Esteury RuizMIA1-3000
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-3000
Connor NorbyMIA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Webb (L)SF8.05215
Ryan GustoMIA4.13126
John King (W)MIA1.11000
Lake Bachar (S)MIA1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, MIA 53% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.5 – 4.4 SF
Expected total
8.9
GiantsThe matchupMarlins
+114Our fair odds−114
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.08Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game4.3
4.9Allowed / game4.4
8.9Hits / game8.1
1.07Home runs / game0.88
2.4Walks drawn / game3.4
31−45Season record39−38
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · MIA chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshi59.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11447%−14859.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−11453%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 23.0 IP, 0.39 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·MIA
Jun 20 at MIA
last game
Jun 20 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
SF·MIA
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
4.3
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
31−45
season record
39−38
14−20
home record
25−16
17−25
away record
14−22
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.9
hits / game
8.1
1.07
home runs / game
0.88
2.4
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.68
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

SF · MIA · 88 days
San Francisco GiantsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 7−3
Jun 20at MIAMIA 6 − 3
Jun 19at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Apr 26at SFSF 6 − 3
Apr 25at SFSF 6 − 2
Apr 24at SFMIA 9 − 4
Jun 26, 2025at SFMIA 12 − 5
Jun 25, 2025at SFMIA 8 − 5
Jun 24, 2025at SFMIA 4 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at MIASF 4 − 2
May 31, 2025at MIAMIA 1 − 0

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 20at MIA3 − 6L
Jun 19at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATL7 − 5W
Jun 16at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 14vs CHC5 − 1W
Jun 13vs CHC1 − 6L
Jun 12vs CHC1 − 5L
Jun 10vs WSH11 − 10W
Jun 9vs WSH3 − 6L
Jun 8vs WSH3 − 4L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jun 20vs SF6 − 3W
Jun 19vs SF4 − 3W
Jun 17at PHI12 − 4W
Jun 16at PHI2 − 8L
Jun 15at PHI0 − 7L
Jun 14at PIT4 − 2W
Jun 13at PIT2 − 3L
Jun 12at PIT8 − 3W
Jun 11vs ARI2 − 0W
Jun 10vs ARI8 − 0W