bayesRatings

Giants at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final SF 7 – ATL 5
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF140000002790
ATL0000020035120
Team box
SF·ATL
9
hits
12
3
home runs
1
3
walks
2
6
strikeouts
7
162
pitches thrown
145
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis ArraezSF2-4214
Mauricio DubonATL1-4112
Austin RileyATL3-5001
Willy AdamesSF1-4111
Bryce EldridgeSF1-5111
Matt OlsonATL3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carson Whisenhunt (W)SF5.06222
Tristan Beck (S)SF0.20001
JR Ritchie (L)ATL5.05534

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +5
SF +5
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · SF 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 42%, ATL 58% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
ATL by 1.0
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 3.8 SF
Expected total
8.5
GiantsThe matchupBraves
+137Our fair odds−137
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating+0.16
4.2Runs / game5.0
4.8Allowed / game3.6
8.9Hits / game8.6
1.04Home runs / game1.33
2.4Walks drawn / game3.1
30−43Season record46−26
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ATL chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+13742%+11945.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−13758%−14258.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.0
SFSan Francisco Giants+1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.0 expected
San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← SF wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more44%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more34%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFCarson Whisenhunt SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ATLJR Ritchie SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ATL
Jun 16 at ATL
last game
Jun 16 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
SF·ATL
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.2
runs / game
5.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.6
30−43
season record
46−26
14−20
home record
22−12
16−23
away record
24−14
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.9
hits / game
8.6
1.04
home runs / game
1.33
2.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.66
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

SF · ATL · 84 days
San Francisco GiantsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 3−7
Jun 16at ATLSF 7 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 0
Jul 21, 2025at ATLATL 9 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 6, 2025at SFSF 5 − 4
Aug 15, 2024at SFSF 6 − 0
Aug 14, 2024at SFATL 13 − 2
Aug 13, 2024at SFATL 4 − 3

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 16at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 14vs CHC5 − 1W
Jun 13vs CHC1 − 6L
Jun 12vs CHC1 − 5L
Jun 10vs WSH11 − 10W
Jun 9vs WSH3 − 6L
Jun 8vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 7at CHC2 − 1W
Jun 6at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 5at CHC18 − 3W

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 16vs SF2 − 7L
Jun 14at NYM1 − 8L
Jun 13at NYM3 − 1W
Jun 12at NYM5 − 7L
Jun 10at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 9at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 7vs PIT3 − 2W
Jun 6vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 5vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 4vs TOR2 − 7L