bayesRatings

Braves at Mets

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 6:15 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ATL 5 – NYM 7
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL020010020590
NYM24010000781
Team box
ATL·NYM
9
hits
8
1
home runs
3
4
walks
3
13
strikeouts
8
141
pitches thrown
182
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bo BichetteNYM2-3226
Juan SotoNYM2-3111
Matt OlsonATL1-5111
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-3201
Dominic SmithATL1-3101
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Strider (L)ATL3.06713
Nolan McLeanNYM4.03246
Cionel Perez (W)NYM1.11100
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.12002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +5
ATL +5
123456789
largest lead: NYM 5 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, NYM 46% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 3.9 NYM
Expected total
8.7
BravesThe matchupMets
−118Our fair odds+118
4.8Expected runs3.9
+0.20Power rating−0.03
5.1Runs / game4.0
3.5Allowed / game4.3
8.7Hits / game7.6
1.35Home runs / game1.04
3.1Walks drawn / game2.8
45−23Season record30−38
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11854%+10548.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+11846%−12655.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byNYM wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more33%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLSpencer Strider SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 16 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NYM
Jun 10 at CHW
last game
Jun 11 vs STL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
ATL·NYM
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.1
runs / game
4.0
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
45−23
season record
30−38
22−11
home record
16−17
23−12
away record
14−21
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
7.6
1.35
home runs / game
1.04
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.43
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

ATL · NYM · 79 days
Atlanta BravesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Aug 24, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at ATLNYM 9 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at ATLNYM 12 − 7
Aug 14, 2025at NYMATL 4 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at NYMATL 11 − 6
Aug 12, 2025at NYMNYM 13 − 5
Jun 26, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 3
Jun 24, 2025at NYMATL 7 − 4
Jun 23, 2025at NYMATL 3 − 2

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 10at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 9at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 7vs PIT3 − 2W
Jun 6vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 5vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 4vs TOR2 − 7L
Jun 3vs TOR7 − 3W
Jun 2vs TOR4 − 3W
May 31at CIN4 − 6L
May 30at CIN5 − 2W

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 11vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 10vs STL2 − 9L
Jun 9vs STL0 − 7L
Jun 7at SD7 − 3W
Jun 6at SD2 − 3L
Jun 5at SD5 − 0W
Jun 3at SEA7 − 1W
Jun 2at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 1at SEA2 − 3L
May 31vs MIA10 − 1W