bayesRatings

Braves at Mets

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 3:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ATL 3 – NYM 1
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL010100010370
NYM000001000160
Team box
ATL·NYM
7
hits
6
2
home runs
0
0
walks
2
10
strikeouts
10
121
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eli WhiteATL3-4112
Michael Harris IIATL1-4111
Juan SotoNYM2-4000
Bo BichetteNYM2-4100
Mark VientosNYM1-4001
Matt OlsonATL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin Perez (W)ATL5.14114
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.01011
Sean Manaea (L)NYM6.04206

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · ATL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, NYM 46% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.7
BravesThe matchupMets
−115Our fair odds+115
4.7Expected runs4.0
+0.18Power rating−0.03
5.1Runs / game4.0
3.5Allowed / game4.3
8.7Hits / game7.6
1.35Home runs / game1.07
3.1Walks drawn / game2.8
45−24Season record31−38
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair53.5%46.5%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11554%−10751.8%———
NYMNew York Mets+11546%−11653.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byNYM wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 9 Kstarted
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 9.2 IP, 6.52 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NYM
Jun 12 at NYM
last game
Jun 12 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
ATL·NYM
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.1
runs / game
4.0
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
45−24
season record
31−38
22−11
home record
17−17
23−13
away record
14−21
L3
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
7.6
1.35
home runs / game
1.07
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.42
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ATL · NYM · 80 days
Atlanta BravesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
Jun 12at NYMNYM 7 − 5
Aug 24, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at ATLNYM 9 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at ATLNYM 12 − 7
Aug 14, 2025at NYMATL 4 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at NYMATL 11 − 6
Aug 12, 2025at NYMNYM 13 − 5
Jun 26, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 3
Jun 24, 2025at NYMATL 7 − 4

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jun 12at NYM5 − 7L
Jun 10at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 9at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 7vs PIT3 − 2W
Jun 6vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 5vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 4vs TOR2 − 7L
Jun 3vs TOR7 − 3W
Jun 2vs TOR4 − 3W
May 31at CIN4 − 6L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 12vs ATL7 − 5W
Jun 11vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 10vs STL2 − 9L
Jun 9vs STL0 − 7L
Jun 7at SD7 − 3W
Jun 6at SD2 − 3L
Jun 5at SD5 − 0W
Jun 3at SEA7 − 1W
Jun 2at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 1at SEA2 − 3L