bayesRatings

Giants at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final SF 7 – ATL 2
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF1200200117100
ATL200000000270
Team box
SF·ATL
10
hits
7
3
home runs
1
3
walks
4
4
strikeouts
13
152
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-3112
Drake BaldwinATL1-5111
Willy AdamesSF1-4111
Rafael DeversSF1-4111
Luis ArraezSF3-5200
Bryce EldridgeSF2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Adrian HouserSF1.03212
Robbie Ray (W)SF6.12028
Grant Holmes (L)ATL2.04332

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +5
SF +5
123456789
largest lead: ATL 1 · SF 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 42%, ATL 58% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
ATL by 1.1
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 3.7 SF
Expected total
8.5
GiantsThe matchupBraves
+140Our fair odds−140
3.7Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating+0.18
4.1Runs / game5.1
4.9Allowed / game3.5
8.9Hits / game8.6
1.01Home runs / game1.34
2.3Walks drawn / game3.1
29−43Season record46−25
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ATL chance
Our model fair41.6%58.4%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+14042%+14640.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−14058%−17563.6%———
SpreadATL by 1.1
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.1 expected
San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← SF wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more45%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more34%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 6.57 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ATL
Jun 14 vs CHC
last game
Jun 14 at NYM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
SF·ATL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.1
runs / game
5.1
4.9
runs allowed / game
3.5
29−43
season record
46−25
14−20
home record
22−11
15−23
away record
24−14
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.9
hits / game
8.6
1.01
home runs / game
1.34
2.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.67
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SF · ATL · 83 days
San Francisco GiantsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Jul 23, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 0
Jul 21, 2025at ATLATL 9 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 6, 2025at SFSF 5 − 4
Aug 15, 2024at SFSF 6 − 0
Aug 14, 2024at SFATL 13 − 2
Aug 13, 2024at SFATL 4 − 3
Aug 12, 2024at SFATL 1 − 0

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 14vs CHC5 − 1W
Jun 13vs CHC1 − 6L
Jun 12vs CHC1 − 5L
Jun 10vs WSH11 − 10W
Jun 9vs WSH3 − 6L
Jun 8vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 7at CHC2 − 1W
Jun 6at CHC2 − 3L
Jun 5at CHC18 − 3W
Jun 4at MIL12 − 9W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 14at NYM1 − 8L
Jun 13at NYM3 − 1W
Jun 12at NYM5 − 7L
Jun 10at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 9at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 7vs PIT3 − 2W
Jun 6vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 5vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 4vs TOR2 − 7L
Jun 3vs TOR7 − 3W