bayesRatings

Marlins at Phillies

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final MIA 2 – PHI 8
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000000200270
PHI34010000860
Team box
MIA·PHI
7
hits
6
1
home runs
3
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
7
138
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BohmPHI2-4213
Esteury RuizMIA2-4112
Brandon MarshPHI1-3212
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-2211
Bryson StottPHI1-4002
Leo JimenezMIA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Phillips (L)MIA4.06834
Jesus Luzardo (W)PHI7.05229

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +8
MIA +8
123456789
largest lead: PHI 8 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
PHI by 0.7
Expected score
PHI 4.5 – 3.8 MIA
Expected total
8.3
MarlinsThe matchupPhillies
+125Our fair odds−125
3.8Expected runs4.5
−0.04Power rating+0.11
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.3
8.1Hits / game7.6
0.82Home runs / game1.25
3.4Walks drawn / game3.0
36−37Season record39−33
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+12544%+14640.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12556%−17563.6%———
SpreadPHI by 0.7
MIAMiami Marlins+0.7our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.7 expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more42%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIATyler Phillips SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·PHI
Jun 15 at PHI
last game
Jun 15 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
MIA·PHI
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.3
36−37
season record
39−33
23−16
home record
20−17
13−21
away record
19−16
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
7.6
0.82
home runs / game
1.25
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.67
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

MIA · PHI · 83 days
Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Jun 15at PHIPHI 7 − 0
May 4at MIAPHI 1 − 0
May 3at MIAPHI 7 − 2
May 2at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 1at MIAPHI 6 − 5
Sep 25, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at PHIMIA 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Sep 6, 2025at MIAPHI 4 − 2

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 15at PHI0 − 7L
Jun 14at PIT4 − 2W
Jun 13at PIT2 − 3L
Jun 12at PIT8 − 3W
Jun 11vs ARI2 − 0W
Jun 10vs ARI8 − 0W
Jun 9vs ARI10 − 6W
Jun 7vs TB4 − 1W
Jun 6vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 5vs TB0 − 6L

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 15vs MIA7 − 0W
Jun 14at MIL0 − 4L
Jun 13at MIL9 − 8W
Jun 12at MIL0 − 6L
Jun 10at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 9at TOR2 − 3L
Jun 8at TOR5 − 2W
Jun 7vs CHW9 − 5W
Jun 6vs CHW3 − 6L
Jun 5vs CHW8 − 6W