bayesRatings

Twins at Rangers

MLB · Thursday, Jun 18 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final MIN 9 – TEX 3
← MLB / Jun 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN4002010209130
TEX0000020013110
Team box
MIN·TEX
13
hits
11
3
home runs
3
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
10
167
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trevor LarnachMIN3-5213
Brooks LeeMIN1-5113
Ryan KreidlerMIN1-2112
Wyatt LangfordTEX2-4111
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-3111
Justin FoscueTEX1-1111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe Ryan (W)MIN5.03027
Jack Leiter (L)TEX4.07624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +7
MIN +7
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · MIN 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 45%, TEX 55% · Updated Jun 18

Expected margin
TEX by 0.6
Expected score
TEX 4.4 – 3.8 MIN
Expected total
8.2
TwinsThe matchupRangers
+120Our fair odds−120
3.8Expected runs4.4
−0.13Power rating−0.02
4.7Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.0
8.1Hits / game7.9
1.20Home runs / game0.99
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
35−40Season record35−38
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · TEX chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12045%−12655.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−12055%+10548.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.6
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.6 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more41%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·TEX
Jun 16 at TEX
last game
Jun 16 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
MIN·TEX
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.7
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
35−40
season record
35−38
20−19
home record
17−16
15−21
away record
18−22
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.9
1.20
home runs / game
0.99
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.59
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

MIN · TEX · 85 days
Minnesota TwinsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Jun 16at TEXMIN 12 − 2
Jun 15at TEXMIN 4 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at TEXMIN 4 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at TEXMIN 4 − 1
Jun 12, 2025at MINTEX 16 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at MINTEX 16 − 4
Aug 18, 2024at TEXTEX 6 − 5
Aug 17, 2024at TEXMIN 5 − 2

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jun 16at TEX12 − 2W
Jun 15at TEX4 − 2W
Jun 14vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 13vs STL6 − 9L
Jun 12vs STL9 − 8W
Jun 11at DET0 − 11L
Jun 10at DET6 − 4W
Jun 9at DET4 − 10L
Jun 7vs KC5 − 6L
Jun 6vs KC2 − 3L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 16vs MIN2 − 12L
Jun 15vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 14at BOS6 − 4W
Jun 13at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 12at BOS1 − 10L
Jun 11at KC4 − 2W
Jun 10at KC6 − 4W
Jun 9at KC3 − 5L
Jun 7vs CLE10 − 0W
Jun 6vs CLE0 − 6L