bayesRatings

Padres at Rangers

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final SD 3 – TEX 4
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000300000390
TEX00310000490
Team box
SD·TEX
9
hits
9
0
home runs
1
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
5
120
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wyatt LangfordTEX2-4113
Xander BogaertsSD2-3101
Josh JungTEX2-3001
Gavin SheetsSD1-3001
Sung-Mun SongSD1-4001
Nicky LopezTEX2-2200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Wandy PeraltaSD1.01000
Lucas Giolito (L)SD4.07422
Nathan Eovaldi (W)TEX6.07319
Jakob Junis (S)TEX1.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 3 · SD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 50%, TEX 50% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 3.8 – 3.6 SD
Expected total
7.4
PadresThe matchupRangers
+101Our fair odds−101
3.6Expected runs3.8
+0.04Power rating−0.02
3.9Runs / game4.0
4.0Allowed / game4.2
7.2Hits / game8.0
1.04Home runs / game1.01
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
39−36Season record36−40
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · TEX chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10150%+13442.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10150%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.2our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.4
Over7.4our total————
Under7.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 18%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%
← SD wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.4 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 7.542%
Total over 9.525%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDWandy Peralta RP · last 3 starts: 4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 Kstarted
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 5.30 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·TEX
Jun 20 at TEX
last game
Jun 20 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
SD·TEX
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.9
runs / game
4.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.2
39−36
season record
36−40
19−19
home record
18−18
20−17
away record
18−22
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.2
hits / game
8.0
1.04
home runs / game
1.01
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.31
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

SD · TEX · 88 days
San Diego PadresTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 3−7
Jun 20at TEXSD 6 − 4
Jun 19at TEXTEX 9 − 7
Jul 6, 2025at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at SDTEX 7 − 4
Jul 4, 2025at SDSD 3 − 2
Jul 4, 2024at TEXSD 3 − 1
Jul 3, 2024at TEXSD 6 − 4
Jul 2, 2024at TEXTEX 7 − 0
Jul 30, 2023at SDSD 5 − 3
Jul 29, 2023at SDSD 4 − 0

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 20at TEX6 − 4W
Jun 19at TEX7 − 9L
Jun 17at STL6 − 1W
Jun 16at STL2 − 3L
Jun 15at STL0 − 3L
Jun 14at BAL5 − 2W
Jun 13at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 12at BAL3 − 7L
Jun 10vs CIN5 − 4W
Jun 9vs CIN3 − 5L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 20vs SD4 − 6L
Jun 19vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 18vs MIN3 − 9L
Jun 16vs MIN2 − 12L
Jun 15vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 14at BOS6 − 4W
Jun 13at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 12at BOS1 − 10L
Jun 11at KC4 − 2W
Jun 10at KC6 − 4W