bayesRatings

Padres at Cardinals

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final SD 2 – STL 3
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000011000240
STL02001000380
Team box
SD·STL
4
hits
8
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
8
strikeouts
3
151
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
JJ WetherholtSTL3-4000
Ty FranceSD1-3001
Jackson MerrillSD1-4001
Lars NootbaarSTL1-2101
Blaze JordanSTL1-4101
Nathan ChurchSTL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael King (L)SD4.15331
Andre Pallante (W)STL7.04206
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 2 · SD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, STL 52% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.2 – 4.1 SD
Expected total
8.3
PadresThe matchupCardinals
+106Our fair odds−106
4.1Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating+0.02
3.8Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game4.4
7.1Hits / game8.3
1.03Home runs / game1.19
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
37−34Season record39−31
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10648%−10350.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10652%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 9 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·STL
Jun 15 at STL
last game
Jun 15 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
SD·STL
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.8
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.4
37−34
season record
39−31
19−19
home record
20−16
18−15
away record
19−15
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.1
hits / game
8.3
1.03
home runs / game
1.19
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.30
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

SD · STL · 83 days
San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 4−6
Jun 15at STLSTL 3 − 0
May 10at SDSD 3 − 2
May 9at SDSD 4 − 2
May 8at SDSTL 6 − 0
May 7at SDSTL 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SDSD 7 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at SDSTL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at STLSD 9 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at STLSD 3 − 1

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 15at STL0 − 3L
Jun 14at BAL5 − 2W
Jun 13at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 12at BAL3 − 7L
Jun 10vs CIN5 − 4W
Jun 9vs CIN3 − 5L
Jun 8vs CIN6 − 2W
Jun 7vs NYM3 − 7L
Jun 6vs NYM3 − 2W
Jun 5vs NYM0 − 5L

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 15vs SD3 − 0W
Jun 14at MIN4 − 5L
Jun 13at MIN9 − 6W
Jun 12at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 11at NYM4 − 5L
Jun 10at NYM9 − 2W
Jun 9at NYM7 − 0W
Jun 7vs CIN5 − 3W
Jun 6vs CIN6 − 5W
Jun 5vs CIN10 − 3W