bayesRatings

Padres at Cardinals

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final SD 6 – STL 1
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD1001100036140
STL000010000161
Team box
SD·STL
14
hits
6
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
4
129
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson MerrillSD3-5112
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-5002
Xander BogaertsSD2-4001
Manny MachadoSD1-3101
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4001
Samad TaylorSD1-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bradgley RodriguezSD1.01001
Griffin Canning (W)SD4.14132
Kyle Leahy (L)STL6.07317

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
SD +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · SD 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, STL 52% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.1 – 4.0 SD
Expected total
8.2
PadresThe matchupCardinals
+107Our fair odds−107
4.0Expected runs4.1
+0.03Power rating+0.02
3.8Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game4.4
7.0Hits / game8.3
1.01Home runs / game1.17
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
37−35Season record40−31
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10748%+10548.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10752%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDBradgley Rodriguez RP · last 2 starts: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·STL
Jun 16 at STL
last game
Jun 16 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
SD·STL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.8
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.4
37−35
season record
40−31
19−19
home record
21−16
18−16
away record
19−15
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.0
hits / game
8.3
1.01
home runs / game
1.17
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.29
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

SD · STL · 84 days
San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Jun 16at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jun 15at STLSTL 3 − 0
May 10at SDSD 3 − 2
May 9at SDSD 4 − 2
May 8at SDSTL 6 − 0
May 7at SDSTL 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SDSD 7 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at SDSTL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at STLSD 9 − 2

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 16at STL2 − 3L
Jun 15at STL0 − 3L
Jun 14at BAL5 − 2W
Jun 13at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 12at BAL3 − 7L
Jun 10vs CIN5 − 4W
Jun 9vs CIN3 − 5L
Jun 8vs CIN6 − 2W
Jun 7vs NYM3 − 7L
Jun 6vs NYM3 − 2W

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 16vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 15vs SD3 − 0W
Jun 14at MIN4 − 5L
Jun 13at MIN9 − 6W
Jun 12at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 11at NYM4 − 5L
Jun 10at NYM9 − 2W
Jun 9at NYM7 − 0W
Jun 7vs CIN5 − 3W
Jun 6vs CIN6 − 5W