bayesRatings

Rangers at Marlins

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final TEX 4 – MIA 3
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000200020490
MIA000011010370
Team box
TEX·MIA
9
hits
7
1
home runs
0
5
walks
2
7
strikeouts
13
147
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-4112
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-3001
Brandon NimmoTEX3-3200
Otto LopezMIA2-3100
Kyle StowersMIA1-4001
Joc PedersonTEX2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler AlexanderTEX1.00001
Robby Ahlstrom (W)TEX1.00001
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.11012
Tyler PhillipsMIA6.05234
Calvin Faucher (L)MIA1.02210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · TEX 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, MIA 52% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.2 – 4.2 TEX
Expected total
8.3
RangersThe matchupMarlins
+107Our fair odds−107
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating−0.02
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.2Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game8.1
1.01Home runs / game0.88
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
37−40Season record40−38
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · MIA chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10748%+11446.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10752%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more35%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more25%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXTyler Alexander RP · last 3 starts: 5.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 5 Kstarted
MIATyler Phillips SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·MIA
Jun 21 vs SD
last game
Jun 21 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
TEX·MIA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.3
37−40
season record
40−38
19−18
home record
26−16
18−22
away record
14−22
W1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.1
1.01
home runs / game
0.88
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.47
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

TEX · MIA · 89 days
Texas RangersMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Sep 21, 2025at TEXMIA 4 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at TEXMIA 4 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TEXMIA 6 − 4
Jun 2, 2024at MIATEX 6 − 0
Jun 1, 2024at MIATEX 7 − 0
May 31, 2024at MIAMIA 8 − 2
Aug 6, 2023at TEXTEX 6 − 0
Aug 5, 2023at TEXTEX 9 − 8
Aug 4, 2023at TEXTEX 6 − 2
Sep 12, 2022at MIAMIA 10 − 6

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 21vs SD4 − 3W
Jun 20vs SD4 − 6L
Jun 19vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 18vs MIN3 − 9L
Jun 16vs MIN2 − 12L
Jun 15vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 14at BOS6 − 4W
Jun 13at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 12at BOS1 − 10L
Jun 11at KC4 − 2W

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jun 21vs SF2 − 1W
Jun 20vs SF6 − 3W
Jun 19vs SF4 − 3W
Jun 17at PHI12 − 4W
Jun 16at PHI2 − 8L
Jun 15at PHI0 − 7L
Jun 14at PIT4 − 2W
Jun 13at PIT2 − 3L
Jun 12at PIT8 − 3W
Jun 11vs ARI2 − 0W