bayesRatings

Rangers at Blue Jays

MLB · Thursday, Jun 25 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final TEX 6 – TOR 5
← MLB / Jun 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX1050000006100
TOR000030002560
Team box
TEX·TOR
10
hits
6
3
home runs
1
6
walks
1
5
strikeouts
8
141
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX2-4112
Wyatt LangfordTEX1-5113
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-4212
Joc PedersonTEX2-3211
Myles StrawTOR1-2002
Kyle HigashiokaTEX2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (W)TEX7.04315
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.02202
Kevin Gausman (L)TOR6.010624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +6
TEX +6
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · TEX 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 47%, TOR 53% · Updated Jun 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.0 TEX
Expected total
8.4
RangersThe matchupBlue Jays
+114Our fair odds−114
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating+0.04
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.4
1.04Home runs / game1.01
3.3Walks drawn / game2.8
38−42Season record39−41
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · TOR chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11447%+11945.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11453%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 22 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·TOR
Jun 24 at MIA
last game
Jun 24 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
TEX·TOR
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
38−42
season record
39−41
19−18
home record
22−20
19−24
away record
17−21
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.4
1.04
home runs / game
1.01
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.45
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

TEX · TOR · 92 days
Texas RangersToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Aug 17, 2025at TORTEX 10 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at TORTOR 14 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 5
May 28, 2025at TEXTOR 2 − 0
May 27, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
May 26, 2025at TEXTOR 2 − 1
Sep 19, 2024at TEXTOR 4 − 0
Sep 18, 2024at TEXTEX 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2024at TEXTEX 13 − 8
Jul 28, 2024at TORTOR 7 − 3

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 24at MIA2 − 4L
Jun 23at MIA4 − 6L
Jun 22at MIA4 − 3W
Jun 21vs SD4 − 3W
Jun 20vs SD4 − 6L
Jun 19vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 18vs MIN3 − 9L
Jun 16vs MIN2 − 12L
Jun 15vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 14at BOS6 − 4W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 24vs HOU1 − 3L
Jun 23vs HOU7 − 9L
Jun 22vs HOU4 − 2W
Jun 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jun 19at CHC2 − 16L
Jun 18at BOS4 − 3W
Jun 17at BOS3 − 0W
Jun 16at BOS6 − 1W
Jun 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Jun 13vs NYY1 − 3L