bayesRatings

Angels at Mariners

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final LAA 2 – SEA 6
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA101000000281
SEA00120300660
Team box
LAA·SEA
8
hits
6
1
home runs
3
2
walks
2
8
strikeouts
6
127
pitches thrown
119
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA3-3223
Zach NetoLAA2-3211
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-4111
Cal RaleighSEA1-4002
Josh LoweLAA2-3000
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Johnson (L)LAA5.04103
George Kirby (W)SEA8.07217

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
LAA +4
123456789
largest lead: SEA 4 · LAA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, SEA 57% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
SEA by 0.9
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.4
AngelsThe matchupMariners
+130Our fair odds−130
3.8Expected runs4.7
−0.17Power rating+0.03
4.5Runs / game4.0
5.0Allowed / game4.0
8.1Hits / game7.7
1.18Home runs / game1.20
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
36−49Season record42−43
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · SEA chance
Our model fair43.4%56.6%
Kalshi37.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13043%+16637.6%———
SEASeattle Mariners−13057%−20867.6%———
SpreadSEA by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more44%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.91 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·SEA
Jun 28 vs ATH
last game
Jun 28 at CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 85+ games
LAA·SEA
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.5
runs / game
4.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.0
36−49
season record
42−43
21−22
home record
22−19
15−27
away record
20−24
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.7
1.18
home runs / game
1.20
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.62
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

LAA · SEA · 96 days
Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Apr 5at LAALAA 8 − 7
Apr 4at LAALAA 1 − 0
Apr 3at LAASEA 3 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
Sep 11, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Jul 27, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at LAASEA 7 − 2
Jul 25, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 28vs ATH4 − 1W
Jun 27vs ATH5 − 2W
Jun 26vs ATH3 − 9L
Jun 24vs BAL7 − 6W
Jun 23vs BAL5 − 1W
Jun 22vs BAL1 − 6L
Jun 21at ATH9 − 7W
Jun 20at ATH7 − 0W
Jun 19at ATH11 − 12L
Jun 18at ATH0 − 5L

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 28at CLE5 − 6L
Jun 27at CLE3 − 4L
Jun 26at CLE3 − 1W
Jun 25at PIT1 − 5L
Jun 24at PIT1 − 11L
Jun 23at PIT3 − 2W
Jun 21vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 20vs BOS1 − 5L
Jun 19vs BOS2 − 6L
Jun 18vs BAL3 − 0W