bayesRatings

Angels at Athletics

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final LAA 9 – ATH 7
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA0300100329102
ATH400100200770
Team box
LAA·ATH
10
hits
7
3
home runs
1
3
walks
5
12
strikeouts
6
145
pitches thrown
150
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick KurtzATH2-4213
Denzer GuzmanLAA2-3213
Donovan WaltonLAA1-3113
Zach NetoLAA1-5112
Joey MenesesATH1-3001
Zack GelofATH2-5300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid DetmersLAA6.06544
Chase Silseth (W)LAA1.00012
Sam Bachman (S)LAA1.00000
Jack PerkinsATH5.04428
Elvis Alvarado (L)ATH1.22203

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
LAA +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 4 · LAA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 46%, ATH 54% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATH 5.2 – 5.2 LAA
Expected total
10.5
AngelsThe matchupAthletics
+119Our fair odds−119
5.2Expected runs5.2
−0.20Power rating−0.10
4.5Runs / game4.6
5.0Allowed / game5.3
8.1Hits / game8.6
1.18Home runs / game1.35
3.4Walks drawn / game3.8
31−47Season record38−39
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+11946%+11446.7%———
ATHAthletics−11954%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
LAALos Angeles AngelsPKour margin————
ATHAthleticsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more37%
Athletics wins by 3 or more28%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more38%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.45 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 7.62 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·ATH
Jun 20 at ATH
last game
Jun 20 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
13th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
LAA·ATH
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.5
runs / game
4.6
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.3
31−47
season record
38−39
17−20
home record
18−22
14−27
away record
20−17
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.6
1.18
home runs / game
1.35
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.63
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

LAA · ATH · 88 days
Los Angeles AngelsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 7−3
Jun 20at ATHLAA 7 − 0
Jun 19at ATHATH 12 − 11
Jun 18at ATHATH 5 − 0
May 21at LAAATH 3 − 2
May 20at LAAATH 6 − 5
May 19at LAAATH 14 − 6
May 18at LAALAA 2 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at LAAATH 17 − 4
Sep 5, 2025at LAAATH 10 − 4

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 20at ATH7 − 0W
Jun 19at ATH11 − 12L
Jun 18at ATH0 − 5L
Jun 17at ARI1 − 8L
Jun 16at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 15at ARI3 − 4L
Jun 14vs TB3 − 8L
Jun 13vs TB8 − 0W
Jun 12vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 10vs HOU3 − 2W

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 20vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 19vs LAA12 − 11W
Jun 18vs LAA5 − 0W
Jun 17vs PIT4 − 12L
Jun 16vs PIT5 − 6L
Jun 15vs PIT11 − 2W
Jun 14vs COL9 − 23L
Jun 13vs COL7 − 5W
Jun 12vs COL6 − 4W
Jun 10vs MIL4 − 3W