bayesRatings

Angels at Athletics

MLB · Friday, Jun 19 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final LAA 11 – ATH 12
← MLB / Jun 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
LAA000731000011111
ATH013001222112120
Team box
LAA·ATH
11
hits
12
5
home runs
4
5
walks
9
12
strikeouts
10
202
pitches thrown
174
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Logan O'HoppeLAA3-4213
Jacob WilsonATH2-5113
Jose SiriLAA1-4113
Jonah HeimATH1-1112
Max MuncyATH1-3112
Lawrence ButlerATH2-4411
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose SorianoLAA5.06346
Kirby Yates (L)LAA0.10010
Jeffrey SpringsATH3.24644
Elvis Alvarado (W)ATH2.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +7
LAA +7
12345678910
largest lead: ATH 4 · LAA 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 45%, ATH 55% · Updated Jun 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATH 5.2 – 5.0 LAA
Expected total
10.2
AngelsThe matchupAthletics
+121Our fair odds−121
5.0Expected runs5.2
−0.21Power rating−0.09
4.4Runs / game4.6
5.0Allowed / game5.2
8.0Hits / game8.6
1.13Home runs / game1.33
3.4Walks drawn / game3.7
30−46Season record37−38
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+12145%+12444.7%———
ATHAthletics−12155%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.2our margin————
ATHAthletics−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more38%
Athletics wins by 3 or more29%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 14 Kstarted
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.24 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·ATH
Jun 18 at ATH
last game
Jun 18 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
11th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
LAA·ATH
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.4
runs / game
4.6
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.2
30−46
season record
37−38
17−20
home record
17−21
13−26
away record
20−17
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.6
1.13
home runs / game
1.33
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.63
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

LAA · ATH · 86 days
Los Angeles AngelsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 7−3
Jun 18at ATHATH 5 − 0
May 21at LAAATH 3 − 2
May 20at LAAATH 6 − 5
May 19at LAAATH 14 − 6
May 18at LAALAA 2 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at LAAATH 17 − 4
Sep 5, 2025at LAAATH 10 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at ATHLAA 11 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 2

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 18at ATH0 − 5L
Jun 17at ARI1 − 8L
Jun 16at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 15at ARI3 − 4L
Jun 14vs TB3 − 8L
Jun 13vs TB8 − 0W
Jun 12vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 10vs HOU3 − 2W
Jun 9vs HOU10 − 1W
Jun 8vs HOU4 − 5L

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 18vs LAA5 − 0W
Jun 17vs PIT4 − 12L
Jun 16vs PIT5 − 6L
Jun 15vs PIT11 − 2W
Jun 14vs COL9 − 23L
Jun 13vs COL7 − 5W
Jun 12vs COL6 − 4W
Jun 10vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 9vs MIL7 − 5W
Jun 8vs MIL14 − 15L