bayesRatings

Angels at Diamondbacks

MLB · Monday, Jun 15 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final LAA 3 – ARI 4
← MLB / Jun 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA1000100013101
ARI10010020480
Team box
LAA·ARI
10
hits
8
2
home runs
1
0
walks
3
7
strikeouts
3
106
pitches thrown
123
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pavin SmithARI2-4111
Mike TroutLAA2-3211
Donovan WaltonLAA2-4111
Jo AdellLAA2-4001
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI1-4001
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walbert Urena (L)LAA7.07323
Ryne Nelson (W)ARI7.09205
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 2 · LAA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 44%, ARI 56% · Updated Jun 15

Expected margin
ARI by 0.6
Expected score
ARI 5.0 – 4.5 LAA
Expected total
9.5
AngelsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+129Our fair odds−129
4.5Expected runs5.0
−0.20Power rating−0.01
4.5Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game4.5
7.9Hits / game7.9
1.12Home runs / game0.90
3.4Walks drawn / game3.1
29−43Season record36−35
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · ARI chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+12944%+11945.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−12956%−14258.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more41%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 19 Kstarted
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 7.16 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·ARI
Jun 14 vs TB
last game
Jun 14 at CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
LAA·ARI
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.5
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
29−43
season record
36−35
17−20
home record
21−14
12−23
away record
15−21
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
7.9
1.12
home runs / game
0.90
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.60
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

LAA · ARI · 82 days
Los Angeles AngelsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Jul 13, 2025at LAAARI 5 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at LAALAA 10 − 5
Jul 11, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Jun 13, 2024at ARIARI 11 − 1
Jun 12, 2024at ARILAA 8 − 3
Jun 11, 2024at ARIARI 9 − 4
Jul 2, 2023at LAALAA 5 − 2
Jul 1, 2023at LAAARI 3 − 1
Jun 30, 2023at LAAARI 6 − 2
Jun 13, 2021at ARILAA 10 − 3

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 14vs TB3 − 8L
Jun 13vs TB8 − 0W
Jun 12vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 10vs HOU3 − 2W
Jun 9vs HOU10 − 1W
Jun 8vs HOU4 − 5L
Jun 7at LAD13 − 5W
Jun 6at LAD2 − 9L
Jun 5at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 3vs COL11 − 4W

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 14at CIN5 − 3W
Jun 13at CIN1 − 2L
Jun 12at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 11at MIA0 − 2L
Jun 10at MIA0 − 8L
Jun 9at MIA6 − 10L
Jun 7vs WSH5 − 1W
Jun 6vs WSH1 − 6L
Jun 5vs WSH1 − 14L
Jun 4vs LAD3 − 2W