bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Reds

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 3:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final ARI 1 – CIN 2
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI100000000170
CIN00100001231
Team box
ARI·CIN
7
hits
3
1
home runs
1
3
walks
0
8
strikeouts
10
108
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin CarrollARI2-5111
Noelvi MarteCIN1-3111
Ketel MarteARI2-4000
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4000
Edwin ArroyoCIN1-2001
Ryan WaldschmidtARI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael SorokaARI7.02107
Juan Morillo (L)ARI1.01103
Rhett LowderCIN5.25126
Chase Petty (W)CIN1.21001
Tony Santillan (S)CIN1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 1 · ARI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.8 – 4.5 CIN
Expected total
9.3
DiamondbacksThe matchupReds
+100Our fair odds−100
4.8Expected runs4.5
−0.01Power rating−0.08
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.6Allowed / game5.1
7.9Hits / game7.8
0.87Home runs / game1.26
3.1Walks drawn / game4.0
35−34Season record32−36
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · CIN chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10050%−14859.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10050%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.3our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCIN wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more39%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more30%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 7.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·CIN
Jun 12 at CIN
last game
Jun 12 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
ARI·CIN
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.1
35−34
season record
32−36
21−14
home record
16−17
14−20
away record
16−19
W1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
7.8
0.87
home runs / game
1.26
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.38
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

ARI · CIN · 80 days
Arizona DiamondbacksCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Jun 12at CINARI 5 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at ARICIN 6 − 1
Aug 23, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at CINCIN 13 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 3
May 15, 2024at ARIARI 2 − 1
May 14, 2024at ARICIN 6 − 2
May 13, 2024at ARIARI 6 − 5

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 12at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 11at MIA0 − 2L
Jun 10at MIA0 − 8L
Jun 9at MIA6 − 10L
Jun 7vs WSH5 − 1W
Jun 6vs WSH1 − 6L
Jun 5vs WSH1 − 14L
Jun 4vs LAD3 − 2W
Jun 3vs LAD0 − 7L
Jun 2vs LAD5 − 6L

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jun 12vs ARI2 − 5L
Jun 10at SD4 − 5L
Jun 9at SD5 − 3W
Jun 8at SD2 − 6L
Jun 7at STL3 − 5L
Jun 6at STL5 − 6L
Jun 5at STL3 − 10L
Jun 3vs KC2 − 5L
Jun 2vs KC4 − 3W
Jun 1vs KC2 − 9L