bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Reds

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 6:15 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final ARI 5 – CIN 2
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI001001003571
CIN011000000241
Team box
ARI·CIN
7
hits
4
0
home runs
1
5
walks
9
6
strikeouts
8
183
pitches thrown
177
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jordan LawlarARI2-4102
Noelvi MarteCIN1-4111
LuJames GrooverARI1-3001
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4000
Nolan ArenadoARI0-4001
Ketel MarteARI1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eduardo RodriguezARI2.22153
Kevin Ginkel (W)ARI1.01010
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00001
Nick LodoloCIN5.15215
Brock Burke (L)CIN1.01020

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 1 · ARI 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.8 – 4.5 CIN
Expected total
9.3
DiamondbacksThe matchupReds
+101Our fair odds−101
4.8Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating−0.07
4.2Runs / game4.3
4.6Allowed / game5.1
7.9Hits / game7.8
0.88Home runs / game1.27
3.0Walks drawn / game3.9
34−34Season record32−35
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · CIN chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10150%−10751.8%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10150%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.3our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCIN wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more39%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more30%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·CIN
Jun 11 at MIA
last game
Jun 10 at SD
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
ARI·CIN
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.2
runs / game
4.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.1
34−34
season record
32−35
21−14
home record
16−16
13−20
away record
16−19
L3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.8
0.88
home runs / game
1.27
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.37
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

ARI · CIN · 79 days
Arizona DiamondbacksCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Aug 24, 2025at ARICIN 6 − 1
Aug 23, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at CINCIN 13 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 3
May 15, 2024at ARIARI 2 − 1
May 14, 2024at ARICIN 6 − 2
May 13, 2024at ARIARI 6 − 5
May 9, 2024at CINARI 5 − 4

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 11at MIA0 − 2L
Jun 10at MIA0 − 8L
Jun 9at MIA6 − 10L
Jun 7vs WSH5 − 1W
Jun 6vs WSH1 − 6L
Jun 5vs WSH1 − 14L
Jun 4vs LAD3 − 2W
Jun 3vs LAD0 − 7L
Jun 2vs LAD5 − 6L
Jun 1vs LAD4 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 10at SD4 − 5L
Jun 9at SD5 − 3W
Jun 8at SD2 − 6L
Jun 7at STL3 − 5L
Jun 6at STL5 − 6L
Jun 5at STL3 − 10L
Jun 3vs KC2 − 5L
Jun 2vs KC4 − 3W
Jun 1vs KC2 − 9L
May 31vs ATL6 − 4W