bayesRatings

Rays at Angels

MLB · Saturday, Jun 13 · 9:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TB 0 – LAA 8
← MLB / Jun 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000000000051
LAA000103408150
Team box
TB·LAA
5
hits
15
0
home runs
1
4
walks
2
8
strikeouts
11
153
pitches thrown
130
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Donovan WaltonLAA3-4002
Denzer GuzmanLAA2-4103
Jose SiriLAA1-2112
Jo AdellLAA4-5300
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-4200
Cedric MullinsTB2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin Jax (L)TB5.05005
Jose Soriano (W)LAA5.03025

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +8
TB +8
123456789
largest lead: LAA 8 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Jun 13

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 5.2 – 4.3 LAA
Expected total
9.5
RaysThe matchupAngels
−121Our fair odds+121
5.2Expected runs4.3
+0.06Power rating−0.21
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game5.0
8.7Hits / game7.9
0.82Home runs / game1.13
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
40−26Season record28−42
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.8%45.2%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−12155%−11653.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12145%−10350.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.8
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.8our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.8 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← TB wins byLAA wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 5.73 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·LAA
Jun 12 at LAA
last game
Jun 12 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
TB·LAA
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
40−26
season record
28−42
24−9
home record
16−19
16−17
away record
12−23
L1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
7.9
0.82
home runs / game
1.13
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.64
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

TB · LAA · 80 days
Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Jun 12at LAALAA 4 − 3
May 31at TBTB 5 − 2
May 30at TBLAA 14 − 3
May 29at TBTB 8 − 5
Aug 6, 2025at LAATB 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at LAATB 7 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 1
Apr 10, 2025at TBLAA 11 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 8, 2025at TBLAA 4 − 3

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 12at LAA3 − 4L
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W
Jun 9vs BOS4 − 3W
Jun 8vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 7at MIA1 − 4L
Jun 6at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 5at MIA6 − 0W
Jun 3vs DET2 − 7L
Jun 2vs DET0 − 8L
Jun 1vs DET9 − 10L

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jun 12vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 10vs HOU3 − 2W
Jun 9vs HOU10 − 1W
Jun 8vs HOU4 − 5L
Jun 7at LAD13 − 5W
Jun 6at LAD2 − 9L
Jun 5at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 3vs COL11 − 4W
Jun 2vs COL2 − 8L
Jun 1vs COL8 − 9L