bayesRatings

Rays at Angels

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TB 3 – LAA 4
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000020001370
LAA202000004121
Team box
TB·LAA
7
hits
12
0
home runs
0
6
walks
3
9
strikeouts
10
139
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan ArandaTB2-5003
Trey ManciniLAA1-3002
Nick MadrigalLAA2-3101
Logan O'HoppeLAA2-4001
Denzer GuzmanLAA2-4000
Mike TroutLAA1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahan (L)TB4.08417
Sam Aldegheri (W)LAA5.03134
Ryan Zeferjahn (S)LAA0.10011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: LAA 4 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 5.2 – 4.3 LAA
Expected total
9.5
RaysThe matchupAngels
−123Our fair odds+123
5.2Expected runs4.3
+0.06Power rating−0.22
4.6Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game5.1
8.7Hits / game7.8
0.83Home runs / game1.14
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
40−25Season record27−42
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.2%44.8%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−12355%−16862.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12345%+14041.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.8
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.8our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.8 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← TB wins byLAA wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LAASam Aldegheri SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·LAA
Jun 10 vs BOS
last game
Jun 10 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
TB·LAA
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
4.6
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.1
40−25
season record
27−42
24−9
home record
15−19
16−16
away record
12−23
W3
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
7.8
0.83
home runs / game
1.14
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.65
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

TB · LAA · 79 days
Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
May 31at TBTB 5 − 2
May 30at TBLAA 14 − 3
May 29at TBTB 8 − 5
Aug 6, 2025at LAATB 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at LAATB 7 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 1
Apr 10, 2025at TBLAA 11 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 8, 2025at TBLAA 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W
Jun 9vs BOS4 − 3W
Jun 8vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 7at MIA1 − 4L
Jun 6at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 5at MIA6 − 0W
Jun 3vs DET2 − 7L
Jun 2vs DET0 − 8L
Jun 1vs DET9 − 10L
May 31vs LAA5 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 10vs HOU3 − 2W
Jun 9vs HOU10 − 1W
Jun 8vs HOU4 − 5L
Jun 7at LAD13 − 5W
Jun 6at LAD2 − 9L
Jun 5at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 3vs COL11 − 4W
Jun 2vs COL2 − 8L
Jun 1vs COL8 − 9L
May 31at TB2 − 5L