bayesRatings

Rays at Angels

MLB · Sunday, Jun 14 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TB 8 – LAA 3
← MLB / Jun 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0021000508110
LAA010020000350
Team box
TB·LAA
11
hits
5
3
home runs
1
4
walks
5
4
strikeouts
11
163
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Victor Mesa Jr.TB2-3212
Junior CamineroTB1-5112
Donovan WaltonLAA1-3111
Ben WilliamsonTB1-4111
Jo AdellLAA2-3101
Chandler SimpsonTB1-5002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey LeguminaTB1.22101
Kevin Kelly (W)TB2.01003
Grayson RodriguezLAA2.13221
Sam Bachman (L)LAA1.04521

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +5
TB +5
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · TB 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Jun 14

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 5.0 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.4
RaysThe matchupAngels
−117Our fair odds+117
5.0Expected runs4.4
+0.04Power rating−0.18
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game5.0
8.6Hits / game8.0
0.81Home runs / game1.13
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
40−27Season record29−42
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−11754%−12655.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11746%+10548.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byLAA wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more42%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more32%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBCasey Legumina RP · last 1 start: 1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·LAA
Jun 13 at LAA
last game
Jun 13 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
TB·LAA
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
40−27
season record
29−42
24−9
home record
17−19
16−18
away record
12−23
L2
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
8.0
0.81
home runs / game
1.13
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.64
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

TB · LAA · 81 days
Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Jun 13at LAALAA 8 − 0
Jun 12at LAALAA 4 − 3
May 31at TBTB 5 − 2
May 30at TBLAA 14 − 3
May 29at TBTB 8 − 5
Aug 6, 2025at LAATB 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at LAATB 7 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 1
Apr 10, 2025at TBLAA 11 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 13at LAA0 − 8L
Jun 12at LAA3 − 4L
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W
Jun 9vs BOS4 − 3W
Jun 8vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 7at MIA1 − 4L
Jun 6at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 5at MIA6 − 0W
Jun 3vs DET2 − 7L
Jun 2vs DET0 − 8L

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jun 13vs TB8 − 0W
Jun 12vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 10vs HOU3 − 2W
Jun 9vs HOU10 − 1W
Jun 8vs HOU4 − 5L
Jun 7at LAD13 − 5W
Jun 6at LAD2 − 9L
Jun 5at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 3vs COL11 − 4W
Jun 2vs COL2 − 8L