bayesRatings

Angels at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final LAA 7 – ARI 0
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA0111210107141
ARI000000000050
Team box
LAA·ARI
14
hits
5
2
home runs
0
1
walks
1
10
strikeouts
6
124
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mike TroutLAA2-5113
Zach NetoLAA2-5211
Donovan WaltonLAA2-4002
Logan O'HoppeLAA3-4100
Wade MecklerLAA1-3001
Denzer GuzmanLAA2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid Detmers (W)LAA7.04003
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI5.111614

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +7
LAA +7
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · LAA 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, ARI 57% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
ARI by 0.6
Expected score
ARI 5.0 – 4.5 LAA
Expected total
9.5
AngelsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+132Our fair odds−132
4.5Expected runs5.0
−0.21Power rating−0.00
4.5Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game7.9
1.14Home runs / game0.90
3.4Walks drawn / game3.1
29−44Season record37−35
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · ARI chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13243%−11252.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−13257%−11252.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more41%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·ARI
Jun 15 at ARI
last game
Jun 15 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
LAA·ARI
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.5
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
29−44
season record
37−35
17−20
home record
22−14
12−24
away record
15−21
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
7.9
1.14
home runs / game
0.90
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.60
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

LAA · ARI · 83 days
Los Angeles AngelsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Jun 15at ARIARI 4 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at LAAARI 5 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at LAALAA 10 − 5
Jul 11, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Jun 13, 2024at ARIARI 11 − 1
Jun 12, 2024at ARILAA 8 − 3
Jun 11, 2024at ARIARI 9 − 4
Jul 2, 2023at LAALAA 5 − 2
Jul 1, 2023at LAAARI 3 − 1
Jun 30, 2023at LAAARI 6 − 2

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 15at ARI3 − 4L
Jun 14vs TB3 − 8L
Jun 13vs TB8 − 0W
Jun 12vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 10vs HOU3 − 2W
Jun 9vs HOU10 − 1W
Jun 8vs HOU4 − 5L
Jun 7at LAD13 − 5W
Jun 6at LAD2 − 9L
Jun 5at LAD0 − 1L

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 15vs LAA4 − 3W
Jun 14at CIN5 − 3W
Jun 13at CIN1 − 2L
Jun 12at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 11at MIA0 − 2L
Jun 10at MIA0 − 8L
Jun 9at MIA6 − 10L
Jun 7vs WSH5 − 1W
Jun 6vs WSH1 − 6L
Jun 5vs WSH1 − 14L