bayesRatings

Angels at Athletics

MLB · Thursday, Jun 18 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final LAA 0 – ATH 5
← MLB / Jun 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000000041
ATH50000000580
Team box
LAA·ATH
4
hits
8
0
home runs
2
4
walks
3
11
strikeouts
5
138
pitches thrown
162
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shea LangeliersATH1-4113
Tyler SoderstromATH1-4111
Henry BolteATH1-2001
Jonah HeimATH1-4000
Jeff McNeilATH1-4000
Zack GelofATH1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Johnson (L)LAA5.08512
Gage Jump (W)ATH7.01037

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +5
LAA +5
123456789
largest lead: ATH 5 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 46%, ATH 54% · Updated Jun 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATH 5.2 – 5.2 LAA
Expected total
10.4
AngelsThe matchupAthletics
+119Our fair odds−119
5.2Expected runs5.2
−0.21Power rating−0.10
4.5Runs / game4.6
5.0Allowed / game5.3
8.0Hits / game8.6
1.15Home runs / game1.32
3.4Walks drawn / game3.7
30−45Season record36−38
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi39.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+11946%+15239.6%———
ATHAthletics−11954%−19966.6%———
Spreadabout even
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.1our margin————
ATHAthletics−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more38%
Athletics wins by 3 or more29%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 1 start: 3.1 IP, 16.20 ERA, 2 Kstarted
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.96 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·ATH
Jun 17 at ARI
last game
Jun 17 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
LAA·ATH
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.5
runs / game
4.6
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.3
30−45
season record
36−38
17−20
home record
16−21
13−25
away record
20−17
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.6
1.15
home runs / game
1.32
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.63
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

LAA · ATH · 85 days
Los Angeles AngelsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 7−3
May 21at LAAATH 3 − 2
May 20at LAAATH 6 − 5
May 19at LAAATH 14 − 6
May 18at LAALAA 2 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at LAAATH 17 − 4
Sep 5, 2025at LAAATH 10 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at ATHLAA 11 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 3

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 17at ARI1 − 8L
Jun 16at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 15at ARI3 − 4L
Jun 14vs TB3 − 8L
Jun 13vs TB8 − 0W
Jun 12vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 10vs HOU3 − 2W
Jun 9vs HOU10 − 1W
Jun 8vs HOU4 − 5L
Jun 7at LAD13 − 5W

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 17vs PIT4 − 12L
Jun 16vs PIT5 − 6L
Jun 15vs PIT11 − 2W
Jun 14vs COL9 − 23L
Jun 13vs COL7 − 5W
Jun 12vs COL6 − 4W
Jun 10vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 9vs MIL7 − 5W
Jun 8vs MIL14 − 15L
Jun 7at HOU5 − 0W