bayesRatings

Angels at Diamondbacks

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 2:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final LAA 1 – ARI 8
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA100000000162
ARI051020008110
Team box
LAA·ARI
6
hits
11
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
7
strikeouts
3
151
pitches thrown
123
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin CarrollARI1-5114
Zach NetoLAA2-3111
Ketel MarteARI2-4102
Tommy TroyARI2-4102
Gabriel MorenoARI3-3000
Jordan LawlarARI2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sam Aldegheri (L)LAA3.06631
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI7.06135

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +7
LAA +7
123456789
largest lead: ARI 7 · LAA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 44%, ARI 56% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
ARI by 0.5
Expected score
ARI 5.0 – 4.5 LAA
Expected total
9.4
AngelsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+128Our fair odds−128
4.5Expected runs5.0
−0.19Power rating−0.02
4.5Runs / game4.2
4.9Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game7.8
1.15Home runs / game0.89
3.4Walks drawn / game3.1
30−44Season record37−36
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · ARI chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+12844%+14640.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−12856%−17563.6%———
SpreadARI by 0.5
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.5our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.5 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more40%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more30%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAASam Aldegheri SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·ARI
Jun 16 at ARI
last game
Jun 16 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
LAA·ARI
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
30−44
season record
37−36
17−20
home record
22−15
13−24
away record
15−21
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
7.8
1.15
home runs / game
0.89
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.61
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

LAA · ARI · 84 days
Los Angeles AngelsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Jun 16at ARILAA 7 − 0
Jun 15at ARIARI 4 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at LAAARI 5 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at LAALAA 10 − 5
Jul 11, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Jun 13, 2024at ARIARI 11 − 1
Jun 12, 2024at ARILAA 8 − 3
Jun 11, 2024at ARIARI 9 − 4
Jul 2, 2023at LAALAA 5 − 2
Jul 1, 2023at LAAARI 3 − 1

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 16at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 15at ARI3 − 4L
Jun 14vs TB3 − 8L
Jun 13vs TB8 − 0W
Jun 12vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 10vs HOU3 − 2W
Jun 9vs HOU10 − 1W
Jun 8vs HOU4 − 5L
Jun 7at LAD13 − 5W
Jun 6at LAD2 − 9L

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 16vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 15vs LAA4 − 3W
Jun 14at CIN5 − 3W
Jun 13at CIN1 − 2L
Jun 12at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 11at MIA0 − 2L
Jun 10at MIA0 − 8L
Jun 9at MIA6 − 10L
Jun 7vs WSH5 − 1W
Jun 6vs WSH1 − 6L