bayesRatings

Orioles at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final BAL 1 – LAA 5
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000000100130
LAA20003000580
Team box
BAL·LAA
3
hits
8
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
13
strikeouts
8
121
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-4112
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-4102
Leody TaverasBAL1-3001
Zach NetoLAA2-4200
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-3000
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Baz (L)BAL5.08515
Ryan Johnson (W)LAA6.01018

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +5
BAL +5
123456789
largest lead: LAA 5 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 52%, LAA 48% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
BAL by 0.5
Expected score
BAL 5.2 – 4.7 LAA
Expected total
9.9
OriolesThe matchupAngels
−109Our fair odds+109
5.2Expected runs4.7
−0.05Power rating−0.20
4.7Runs / game4.5
4.9Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.20Home runs / game1.20
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
38−42Season record32−48
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair52.0%47.9%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−10952%−14258.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+10948%+11945.7%———
SpreadBAL by 0.5
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.5our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 0.5 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byLAA wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more41%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more32%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 2 starts: 8.1 IP, 11.88 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·LAA
Jun 22 at LAA
last game
Jun 22 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
BAL·LAA
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
4.7
runs / game
4.5
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.0
38−42
season record
32−48
22−19
home record
17−21
16−23
away record
15−27
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.20
home runs / game
1.20
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.57
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

BAL · LAA · 90 days
Baltimore OriolesLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 2−8
Jun 22at LAABAL 6 − 1
Jun 15, 2025at BALBAL 11 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Jun 13, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 0
May 11, 2025at LAABAL 7 − 3
May 10, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 9, 2025at LAABAL 4 − 1
Apr 24, 2024at LAABAL 6 − 5
Apr 23, 2024at LAALAA 7 − 4
Apr 22, 2024at LAABAL 4 − 2

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jun 22at LAA6 − 1W
Jun 21at LAD12 − 1W
Jun 20at LAD3 − 2W
Jun 19at LAD5 − 6L
Jun 18at SEA0 − 3L
Jun 17at SEA5 − 3W
Jun 16at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 14vs SD2 − 5L
Jun 13vs SD3 − 9L
Jun 12vs SD7 − 3W

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 22vs BAL1 − 6L
Jun 21at ATH9 − 7W
Jun 20at ATH7 − 0W
Jun 19at ATH11 − 12L
Jun 18at ATH0 − 5L
Jun 17at ARI1 − 8L
Jun 16at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 15at ARI3 − 4L
Jun 14vs TB3 − 8L
Jun 13vs TB8 − 0W