bayesRatings

Orioles at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final BAL 12 – LAD 1
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL21120042012150
LAD100000000150
Team box
BAL·LAD
15
hits
5
4
home runs
0
6
walks
3
9
strikeouts
6
146
pitches thrown
183
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colton CowserBAL3-5114
Pete AlonsoBAL2-3213
Blaze AlexanderBAL3-5212
Taylor WardBAL2-4311
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-5101
Gunnar HendersonBAL2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Young (W)BAL5.05125
Emmet Sheehan (L)LAD3.18634

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +11
BAL +11
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · BAL 11lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 37%, LAD 63% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
LAD by 1.6
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.7 BAL
Expected total
9.0
OriolesThe matchupDodgers
+168Our fair odds−168
3.7Expected runs5.3
−0.07Power rating+0.38
4.6Runs / game5.2
5.0Allowed / game3.4
8.0Hits / game8.7
1.15Home runs / game1.36
3.8Walks drawn / game4.1
36−42Season record49−28
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair37.3%62.7%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+16837%+19833.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−16863%−23970.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.6
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.6our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.6 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more50%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.79 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·LAD
Jun 20 at LAD
last game
Jun 20 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
BAL·LAD
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
4.6
runs / game
5.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.4
36−42
season record
49−28
22−19
home record
26−13
14−23
away record
23−15
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.7
1.15
home runs / game
1.36
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.59
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

BAL · LAD · 88 days
Baltimore OriolesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Jun 20at LADBAL 3 − 2
Jun 19at LADLAD 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at BALLAD 5 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 3
Sep 5, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 1
Aug 29, 2024at LADLAD 6 − 3
Aug 28, 2024at LADLAD 6 − 4
Aug 27, 2024at LADBAL 3 − 2
Jul 19, 2023at BALBAL 8 − 5
Jul 18, 2023at BALLAD 10 − 3

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 20at LAD3 − 2W
Jun 19at LAD5 − 6L
Jun 18at SEA0 − 3L
Jun 17at SEA5 − 3W
Jun 16at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 14vs SD2 − 5L
Jun 13vs SD3 − 9L
Jun 12vs SD7 − 3W
Jun 11vs SEA7 − 5W
Jun 10vs SEA7 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 20vs BAL2 − 3L
Jun 19vs BAL6 − 5W
Jun 17vs TB5 − 4W
Jun 16vs TB1 − 0W
Jun 15vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 14at CHW4 − 6L
Jun 13at CHW7 − 1W
Jun 12at CHW2 − 8L
Jun 11at PIT8 − 6W
Jun 10at PIT8 − 9L