bayesRatings

Rays at Dodgers

MLB · Monday, Jun 15 · 9:00 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final TB 3 – LAD 4
← MLB / Jun 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB210000000380
LAD03000010470
Team box
TB·LAD
8
hits
7
1
home runs
2
3
walks
2
7
strikeouts
9
129
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TuckerLAD2-4113
Ryan ViladeTB2-4112
Miguel RojasLAD1-1111
Jonathan ArandaTB2-3000
Junior CamineroTB2-4100
Freddie FreemanLAD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick MartinezTB5.15316
Steven Matz (L)TB2.02101
Eric LauerLAD6.06334
Kyle Hurt (W)LAD1.01002
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · TB 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 40%, LAD 60% · Updated Jun 15

Expected margin
LAD by 1.2
Expected score
LAD 4.9 – 3.7 TB
Expected total
8.6
RaysThe matchupDodgers
+147Our fair odds−147
3.7Expected runs4.9
+0.05Power rating+0.37
4.5Runs / game5.4
4.4Allowed / game3.4
8.6Hits / game8.8
0.84Home runs / game1.38
3.7Walks drawn / game4.1
41−27Season record45−27
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.5%59.5%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+14740%+15239.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14760%−18364.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.2
TBTampa Bay Rays+1.2our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.2 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more46%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.50 ERA, 8 Kstarted
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·LAD
Jun 14 at LAA
last game
Jun 14 at CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
TB·LAD
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
4.5
runs / game
5.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.4
41−27
season record
45−27
24−9
home record
22−12
17−18
away record
23−15
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.8
0.84
home runs / game
1.38
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.1
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.63
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

TB · LAD · 82 days
Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAD 5−4
Aug 3, 2025at TBLAD 3 − 0
Aug 2, 2025at TBTB 4 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at TBLAD 5 − 0
Aug 25, 2024at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2024at LADTB 9 − 8
Aug 23, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 3
May 28, 2023at TBTB 11 − 10
May 27, 2023at TBLAD 6 − 5
May 26, 2023at TBTB 9 − 3

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 14at LAA8 − 3W
Jun 13at LAA0 − 8L
Jun 12at LAA3 − 4L
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W
Jun 9vs BOS4 − 3W
Jun 8vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 7at MIA1 − 4L
Jun 6at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 5at MIA6 − 0W
Jun 3vs DET2 − 7L

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 14at CHW4 − 6L
Jun 13at CHW7 − 1W
Jun 12at CHW2 − 8L
Jun 11at PIT8 − 6W
Jun 10at PIT8 − 9L
Jun 9at PIT12 − 3W
Jun 7vs LAA5 − 13L
Jun 6vs LAA9 − 2W
Jun 5vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 4at ARI2 − 3L