bayesRatings

Rays at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final TB 0 – LAD 1
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000000000030
LAD00000100161
Team box
TB·LAD
3
hits
6
0
home runs
1
1
walks
0
8
strikeouts
8
109
pitches thrown
100
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-4111
Freddie FreemanLAD2-3000
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3000
Andy PagesLAD1-4000
Ryan WardLAD1-3000
Yandy DiazTB1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew Rasmussen (L)TB7.06107
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD6.03005
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 40%, LAD 60% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
LAD by 1.2
Expected score
LAD 4.9 – 3.7 TB
Expected total
8.6
RaysThe matchupDodgers
+150Our fair odds−150
3.7Expected runs4.9
+0.04Power rating+0.38
4.5Runs / game5.3
4.4Allowed / game3.4
8.6Hits / game8.8
0.84Home runs / game1.38
3.7Walks drawn / game4.1
41−28Season record46−27
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.0%60.0%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+15040%+11945.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15060%−14859.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.2
TBTampa Bay Rays+1.2our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.2 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more46%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 26 Kstarted
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·LAD
Jun 15 at LAD
last game
Jun 15 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
TB·LAD
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
4.5
runs / game
5.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.4
41−28
season record
46−27
24−9
home record
23−12
17−19
away record
23−15
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
8.8
0.84
home runs / game
1.38
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.1
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.62
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

TB · LAD · 83 days
Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Jun 15at LADLAD 4 − 3
Aug 3, 2025at TBLAD 3 − 0
Aug 2, 2025at TBTB 4 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at TBLAD 5 − 0
Aug 25, 2024at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2024at LADTB 9 − 8
Aug 23, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 3
May 28, 2023at TBTB 11 − 10
May 27, 2023at TBLAD 6 − 5
May 26, 2023at TBTB 9 − 3

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 15at LAD3 − 4L
Jun 14at LAA8 − 3W
Jun 13at LAA0 − 8L
Jun 12at LAA3 − 4L
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W
Jun 9vs BOS4 − 3W
Jun 8vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 7at MIA1 − 4L
Jun 6at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 5at MIA6 − 0W

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 15vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 14at CHW4 − 6L
Jun 13at CHW7 − 1W
Jun 12at CHW2 − 8L
Jun 11at PIT8 − 6W
Jun 10at PIT8 − 9L
Jun 9at PIT12 − 3W
Jun 7vs LAA5 − 13L
Jun 6vs LAA9 − 2W
Jun 5vs LAA1 − 0W