bayesRatings

Rays at Dodgers

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 2:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final TB 4 – LAD 5
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000040000480
LAD00021200590
Team box
TB·LAD
8
hits
9
0
home runs
1
4
walks
8
7
strikeouts
5
165
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4212
Yandy DiazTB2-3101
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3001
Alex CallLAD1-3101
Andy PagesLAD2-4100
Alex FreelandLAD1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahanTB3.23253
Kevin Kelly (L)TB1.23211
Shohei Ohtani (W)LAD6.07415
Alex Vesia (S)LAD1.00031

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · TB 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 40%, LAD 60% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
LAD by 1.3
Expected score
LAD 4.9 – 3.6 TB
Expected total
8.5
RaysThe matchupDodgers
+152Our fair odds−152
3.6Expected runs4.9
+0.04Power rating+0.38
4.4Runs / game5.3
4.4Allowed / game3.4
8.5Hits / game8.7
0.83Home runs / game1.38
3.7Walks drawn / game4.0
41−29Season record47−27
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · LAD chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+15240%+12943.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15260%−16161.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.3
TBTampa Bay Rays+1.3our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.3 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more47%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more36%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 16 Kstarted
LADShohei Ohtani DH · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·LAD
Jun 16 at LAD
last game
Jun 16 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
TB·LAD
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
4.4
runs / game
5.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.4
41−29
season record
47−27
24−9
home record
24−12
17−20
away record
23−15
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.5
hits / game
8.7
0.83
home runs / game
1.38
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.61
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

TB · LAD · 84 days
Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
Jun 16at LADLAD 1 − 0
Jun 15at LADLAD 4 − 3
Aug 3, 2025at TBLAD 3 − 0
Aug 2, 2025at TBTB 4 − 0
Aug 1, 2025at TBLAD 5 − 0
Aug 25, 2024at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2024at LADTB 9 − 8
Aug 23, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 3
May 28, 2023at TBTB 11 − 10
May 27, 2023at TBLAD 6 − 5

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 16at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 15at LAD3 − 4L
Jun 14at LAA8 − 3W
Jun 13at LAA0 − 8L
Jun 12at LAA3 − 4L
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W
Jun 9vs BOS4 − 3W
Jun 8vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 7at MIA1 − 4L
Jun 6at MIA3 − 4L

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 16vs TB1 − 0W
Jun 15vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 14at CHW4 − 6L
Jun 13at CHW7 − 1W
Jun 12at CHW2 − 8L
Jun 11at PIT8 − 6W
Jun 10at PIT8 − 9L
Jun 9at PIT12 − 3W
Jun 7vs LAA5 − 13L
Jun 6vs LAA9 − 2W