bayesRatings

Orioles at Angels

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final BAL 6 – LAA 1
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL1003101006110
LAA000000001170
Team box
BAL·LAA
11
hits
7
2
home runs
1
1
walks
1
12
strikeouts
10
110
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Coby MayoBAL1-4113
Taylor WardBAL2-5211
Gunnar HendersonBAL3-4101
Jorge SolerLAA1-4111
Leody TaverasBAL2-3000
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Bradish (W)BAL8.06019
Sam Aldegheri (L)LAA4.25513

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +6
BAL +6
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · BAL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 52%, LAA 48% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BAL 5.2 – 4.8 LAA
Expected total
9.9
OriolesThe matchupAngels
−107Our fair odds+107
5.2Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating−0.19
4.7Runs / game4.6
5.0Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.19Home runs / game1.20
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
37−42Season record32−47
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair51.6%48.4%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−10752%−16862.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+10748%+14041.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.4our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byLAA wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more40%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.32 ERA, 20 Kstarted
LAASam Aldegheri SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·LAA
Jun 21 at LAD
last game
Jun 21 at ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
BAL·LAA
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
4.7
runs / game
4.6
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.0
37−42
season record
32−47
22−19
home record
17−20
15−23
away record
15−27
W2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.19
home runs / game
1.20
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.58
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

BAL · LAA · 89 days
Baltimore OriolesLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
Jun 15, 2025at BALBAL 11 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Jun 13, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 0
May 11, 2025at LAABAL 7 − 3
May 10, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 9, 2025at LAABAL 4 − 1
Apr 24, 2024at LAABAL 6 − 5
Apr 23, 2024at LAALAA 7 − 4
Apr 22, 2024at LAABAL 4 − 2
Mar 31, 2024at BALLAA 4 − 1

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 21at LAD12 − 1W
Jun 20at LAD3 − 2W
Jun 19at LAD5 − 6L
Jun 18at SEA0 − 3L
Jun 17at SEA5 − 3W
Jun 16at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 14vs SD2 − 5L
Jun 13vs SD3 − 9L
Jun 12vs SD7 − 3W
Jun 11vs SEA7 − 5W

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 21at ATH9 − 7W
Jun 20at ATH7 − 0W
Jun 19at ATH11 − 12L
Jun 18at ATH0 − 5L
Jun 17at ARI1 − 8L
Jun 16at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 15at ARI3 − 4L
Jun 14vs TB3 − 8L
Jun 13vs TB8 − 0W
Jun 12vs TB4 − 3W