bayesRatings

Athletics at Angels

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 2:15 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final ATH 1 – LAA 4
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000010000161
LAA04000000460
Team box
ATH·LAA
6
hits
6
0
home runs
1
3
walks
1
9
strikeouts
5
121
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh LoweLAA1-2114
Lawrence ButlerATH2-4000
Jeff McNeilATH1-4100
Joey MenesesATH0-2001
Shea LangeliersATH1-3000
Alika WilliamsATH1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Civale (L)ATH5.06312
Sam Aldegheri (W)LAA5.05114
Samy Natera Jr. (S)LAA1.11002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: LAA 4 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 50%, LAA 50% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATH 5.2 – 4.9 LAA
Expected total
10.1
AthleticsThe matchupAngels
−102Our fair odds+102
5.2Expected runs4.9
−0.10Power rating−0.19
4.7Runs / game4.5
5.3Allowed / game5.0
8.5Hits / game8.1
1.29Home runs / game1.18
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
40−43Season record35−49
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · LAA chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics−10250%−11252.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+10250%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics−0.3our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byLAA wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more40%
Athletics wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 12.27 ERA, 9 Kstarted
LAASam Aldegheri SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 8.53 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·LAA
Jun 27 at LAA
last game
Jun 27 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
ATH·LAA
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
4.7
runs / game
4.5
5.3
runs allowed / game
5.0
40−43
season record
35−49
18−23
home record
20−22
22−20
away record
15−27
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
8.1
1.29
home runs / game
1.18
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.39
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

ATH · LAA · 95 days
AthleticsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Jun 27at LAALAA 5 − 2
Jun 26at LAAATH 9 − 3
Jun 21at ATHLAA 9 − 7
Jun 20at ATHLAA 7 − 0
Jun 19at ATHATH 12 − 11
Jun 18at ATHATH 5 − 0
May 21at LAAATH 3 − 2
May 20at LAAATH 6 − 5
May 19at LAAATH 14 − 6
May 18at LAALAA 2 − 1

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 27at LAA2 − 5L
Jun 26at LAA9 − 3W
Jun 25at SF9 − 6W
Jun 24at SF1 − 2L
Jun 23at SF1 − 3L
Jun 21vs LAA7 − 9L
Jun 20vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 19vs LAA12 − 11W
Jun 18vs LAA5 − 0W
Jun 17vs PIT4 − 12L

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 27vs ATH5 − 2W
Jun 26vs ATH3 − 9L
Jun 24vs BAL7 − 6W
Jun 23vs BAL5 − 1W
Jun 22vs BAL1 − 6L
Jun 21at ATH9 − 7W
Jun 20at ATH7 − 0W
Jun 19at ATH11 − 12L
Jun 18at ATH0 − 5L
Jun 17at ARI1 − 8L