bayesRatings

Athletics at Giants

MLB · Thursday, Jun 25 · 2:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final ATH 9 – SF 6
← MLB / Jun 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH0000202149150
SF000105000650
Team box
ATH·SF
15
hits
5
0
home runs
2
3
walks
4
9
strikeouts
10
145
pitches thrown
185
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Victor BericotoSF1-4112
Jeff McNeilATH3-4201
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-4103
Willy AdamesSF1-3211
Shea LangeliersATH1-5002
Alika WilliamsATH2-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jeffrey SpringsATH5.13326
Geoff Hartlieb (W)ATH2.00011
Mason Barnett (S)ATH1.00001
Landen RouppSF6.06216
Caleb Kilian (L)SF0.24411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: SF 4 · ATH 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 47%, SF 53% · Updated Jun 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.7 – 4.5 ATH
Expected total
9.2
AthleticsThe matchupGiants
+111Our fair odds−111
4.5Expected runs4.7
−0.11Power rating−0.07
4.6Runs / game4.1
5.3Allowed / game4.7
8.4Hits / game8.8
1.32Home runs / game1.06
3.8Walks drawn / game2.4
38−42Season record33−46
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · SF chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+11147%+10947.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−11153%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics+0.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more38%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more28%
Athletics wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 10.95 ERA, 10 Kstarted
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·SF
Jun 24 at SF
last game
Jun 24 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
ATH·SF
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.6
runs / game
4.1
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.7
38−42
season record
33−46
18−23
home record
16−20
20−19
away record
17−26
L4
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.8
1.32
home runs / game
1.06
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.4
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.39
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

ATH · SF · 92 days
AthleticsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 8−2
Jun 24at SFSF 2 − 1
Jun 23at SFSF 3 − 1
May 17at ATHSF 10 − 1
May 16at ATHSF 6 − 4
May 15at ATHATH 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at ATHSF 6 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at ATHSF 7 − 2
Jul 4, 2025at ATHATH 11 − 2
May 18, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
May 17, 2025at SFSF 1 − 0

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jun 24at SF1 − 2L
Jun 23at SF1 − 3L
Jun 21vs LAA7 − 9L
Jun 20vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 19vs LAA12 − 11W
Jun 18vs LAA5 − 0W
Jun 17vs PIT4 − 12L
Jun 16vs PIT5 − 6L
Jun 15vs PIT11 − 2W
Jun 14vs COL9 − 23L

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 24vs ATH2 − 1W
Jun 23vs ATH3 − 1W
Jun 21at MIA1 − 2L
Jun 20at MIA3 − 6L
Jun 19at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATL7 − 5W
Jun 16at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 14vs CHC5 − 1W
Jun 13vs CHC1 − 6L
Jun 12vs CHC1 − 5L