bayesRatings

Athletics at Giants

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final ATH 1 – SF 3
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH001000000130
SF02000010391
Team box
ATH·SF
3
hits
9
0
home runs
1
5
walks
4
7
strikeouts
11
159
pitches thrown
120
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-3111
Tyler SoderstromATH2-4000
Max MuncyATH1-2001
Willy AdamesSF2-4100
Matt ChapmanSF1-4001
Rafael DeversSF1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Civale (L)ATH4.06205
Robbie Ray (W)SF8.02046
Caleb Kilian (S)SF1.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 2 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 48%, SF 52% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.8 – 4.6 ATH
Expected total
9.4
AthleticsThe matchupGiants
+109Our fair odds−109
4.6Expected runs4.8
−0.10Power rating−0.08
4.7Runs / game4.1
5.4Allowed / game4.8
8.5Hits / game8.9
1.35Home runs / game1.05
3.8Walks drawn / game2.4
38−40Season record31−46
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · SF chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+10948%+11945.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10952%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics+0.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 13%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more38%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more28%
Athletics wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 13.50 ERA, 6 Kstarted
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·SF
Jun 21 vs LAA
last game
Jun 21 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
ATH·SF
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.7
runs / game
4.1
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.8
38−40
season record
31−46
18−23
home record
14−20
20−17
away record
17−26
L2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
8.9
1.35
home runs / game
1.05
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.4
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.40
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

ATH · SF · 90 days
AthleticsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 8−2
May 17at ATHSF 10 − 1
May 16at ATHSF 6 − 4
May 15at ATHATH 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at ATHSF 6 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at ATHSF 7 − 2
Jul 4, 2025at ATHATH 11 − 2
May 18, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
May 17, 2025at SFSF 1 − 0
May 16, 2025at SFSF 9 − 1
Aug 18, 2024at ATHSF 4 − 2

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 21vs LAA7 − 9L
Jun 20vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 19vs LAA12 − 11W
Jun 18vs LAA5 − 0W
Jun 17vs PIT4 − 12L
Jun 16vs PIT5 − 6L
Jun 15vs PIT11 − 2W
Jun 14vs COL9 − 23L
Jun 13vs COL7 − 5W
Jun 12vs COL6 − 4W

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 21at MIA1 − 2L
Jun 20at MIA3 − 6L
Jun 19at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATL7 − 5W
Jun 16at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 14vs CHC5 − 1W
Jun 13vs CHC1 − 6L
Jun 12vs CHC1 − 5L
Jun 10vs WSH11 − 10W
Jun 9vs WSH3 − 6L