bayesRatings

Angels at Mariners

MLB · Thursday, Jul 2 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final LAA 0 – SEA 1
← MLB / Jul 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000000041
SEA00000100121
Team box
LAA·SEA
4
hits
2
0
home runs
0
1
walks
4
10
strikeouts
10
138
pitches thrown
116
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-4000
Jorge SolerLAA1-4000
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-4000
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-4100
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-2000
Cal RaleighSEA0-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walbert Urena (L)LAA5.21146
Bryce Miller (W)SEA7.02008
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.02010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 1 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, SEA 57% · Updated Jul 2

Expected margin
SEA by 1.0
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 3.7 LAA
Expected total
8.4
AngelsThe matchupMariners
+134Our fair odds−134
3.7Expected runs4.7
−0.19Power rating+0.04
4.5Runs / game4.1
5.0Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game7.7
1.16Home runs / game1.21
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
36−51Season record44−43
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · SEA chance
Our model fair42.7%57.3%
Kalshi35.6%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13443%+18135.6%———
SEASeattle Mariners−13457%−22869.5%———
SpreadSEA by 1.0
LAALos Angeles Angels+1our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more45%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·SEA
Jun 30 at SEA
last game
Jun 30 vs LAA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
LAA·SEA
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.5
runs / game
4.1
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.9
36−51
season record
44−43
21−22
home record
24−19
15−29
away record
20−24
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.7
1.16
home runs / game
1.21
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.62
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

LAA · SEA · 99 days
Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 7−3
Jun 30at SEASEA 8 − 3
Jun 29at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 5at LAALAA 8 − 7
Apr 4at LAALAA 1 − 0
Apr 3at LAASEA 3 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
Sep 11, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Jul 27, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 1

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 30at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 29at SEA2 − 6L
Jun 28vs ATH4 − 1W
Jun 27vs ATH5 − 2W
Jun 26vs ATH3 − 9L
Jun 24vs BAL7 − 6W
Jun 23vs BAL5 − 1W
Jun 22vs BAL1 − 6L
Jun 21at ATH9 − 7W
Jun 20at ATH7 − 0W

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 30vs LAA8 − 3W
Jun 29vs LAA6 − 2W
Jun 28at CLE5 − 6L
Jun 27at CLE3 − 4L
Jun 26at CLE3 − 1W
Jun 25at PIT1 − 5L
Jun 24at PIT1 − 11L
Jun 23at PIT3 − 2W
Jun 21vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 20vs BOS1 − 5L