bayesRatings

Mets at Blue Jays

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final NYM 1 – TOR 2
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000000100152
TOR10001000241
Team box
NYM·TOR
5
hits
4
1
home runs
0
2
walks
4
5
strikeouts
8
129
pitches thrown
128
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Francisco LindorNYM1-4111
Juan SotoNYM1-3000
Francisco AlvarezNYM1-3000
Jared YoungNYM1-4000
Carson BengeNYM1-4000
George SpringerTOR1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Manaea (L)NYM5.23224
Trey Yesavage (W)TOR6.23103
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.01012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 2 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 46%, TOR 54% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.6 – 4.3 NYM
Expected total
8.9
MetsThe matchupBlue Jays
+116Our fair odds−116
4.3Expected runs4.6
−0.07Power rating+0.01
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.6Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.4
1.11Home runs / game1.02
3.0Walks drawn / game2.8
35−49Season record39−45
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · TOR chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11646%+10548.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11654%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 12%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·TOR
Jun 28 vs PHI
last game
Jun 28 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
NYM·TOR
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
35−49
season record
39−45
19−24
home record
22−24
16−25
away record
17−21
L1
streak
L6
2−8
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.4
1.11
home runs / game
1.02
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.64
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

NYM · TOR · 96 days
New York MetsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Apr 6, 2025at NYMNYM 2 − 1
Apr 5, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Apr 4, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 0
Sep 11, 2024at TORNYM 6 − 2
Sep 10, 2024at TORTOR 6 − 2
Sep 9, 2024at TORNYM 3 − 2
Jun 4, 2023at NYMTOR 6 − 4
Jun 3, 2023at NYMTOR 2 − 1
Jun 2, 2023at NYMTOR 3 − 0
Jul 25, 2021at NYMNYM 5 − 4

NYM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jun 28vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 27vs PHI6 − 2W
Jun 26vs PHI1 − 2L
Jun 25vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 24vs CHC5 − 10L
Jun 24vs CHC3 − 10L
Jun 23vs CHC6 − 9L
Jun 21at PHI2 − 6L
Jun 20at PHI3 − 15L
Jun 18at PHI6 − 4W

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Jun 28vs TEX2 − 3L
Jun 27vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 26vs TEX4 − 5L
Jun 25vs TEX5 − 6L
Jun 24vs HOU1 − 3L
Jun 23vs HOU7 − 9L
Jun 22vs HOU4 − 2W
Jun 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jun 19at CHC2 − 16L
Jun 18at BOS4 − 3W