bayesRatings

Phillies at Mets

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 12:40 PM CT · Citi Field · Final PHI 5 – NYM 4
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI0030002005101
NYM000013000490
Team box
PHI·NYM
10
hits
9
1
home runs
1
1
walks
8
9
strikeouts
10
195
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
A.J. EwingNYM2-3112
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-5212
Carson BengeNYM1-5002
Brandon MarshPHI2-4001
Alec BohmPHI2-3101
Tyrone TaylorNYM2-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus LuzardoPHI5.04136
Kyle Backhus (W)PHI0.21000
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00010
Cionel PerezNYM1.00002
Kodai Senga (L)NYM5.04214

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 1 · PHI 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, NYM 47% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.8
PhilliesThe matchupMets
−113Our fair odds+113
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.12Power rating−0.07
4.4Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game4.6
7.9Hits / game7.7
1.30Home runs / game1.11
2.9Walks drawn / game3.0
46−37Season record35−48
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · NYM chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshi62.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11353%−16862.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+11347%+13442.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.5
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.5our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.5 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byNYM wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.86 ERA, 30 Kstarted
NYMCionel Perez RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·NYM
Jun 27 at NYM
last game
Jun 27 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
PHI·NYM
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.4
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
46−37
season record
35−48
23−19
home record
19−23
23−18
away record
16−25
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.7
1.30
home runs / game
1.11
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.49
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

PHI · NYM · 95 days
Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 3−7
Jun 27at NYMNYM 6 − 2
Jun 26at NYMPHI 2 − 1
Jun 21at PHIPHI 6 − 2
Jun 20at PHIPHI 15 − 3
Jun 18at PHINYM 6 − 4
Sep 11, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Sep 10, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at PHIPHI 9 − 3
Sep 8, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Aug 27, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 0

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 27at NYM2 − 6L
Jun 26at NYM2 − 1W
Jun 25at WSH10 − 5W
Jun 24at WSH5 − 4W
Jun 23at WSH14 − 9W
Jun 22at WSH1 − 4L
Jun 21vs NYM6 − 2W
Jun 20vs NYM15 − 3W
Jun 18vs NYM4 − 6L
Jun 17vs MIA4 − 12L

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 27vs PHI6 − 2W
Jun 26vs PHI1 − 2L
Jun 25vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 24vs CHC5 − 10L
Jun 24vs CHC3 − 10L
Jun 23vs CHC6 − 9L
Jun 21at PHI2 − 6L
Jun 20at PHI3 − 15L
Jun 18at PHI6 − 4W
Jun 17at CIN9 − 1W