bayesRatings

Cubs at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final CHC 10 – NYM 5
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC01030201310120
NYM030101000586
Team box
CHC·NYM
12
hits
8
0
home runs
4
4
walks
4
11
strikeouts
8
138
pitches thrown
193
0
errors
6
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dansby SwansonCHC3-5104
A.J. EwingNYM2-3112
Pedro RamirezCHC3-5402
Bo BichetteNYM2-4111
Mark VientosNYM1-4111
Francisco AlvarezNYM1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shota Imanaga (W)CHC5.14414
Sean ManaeaNYM3.06324
Brooks Raley (L)NYM1.02210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +5
CHC +5
123456789
largest lead: NYM 2 · CHC 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 52%, NYM 48% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.9
CubsThe matchupMets
−107Our fair odds+107
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.05
4.8Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.3Hits / game7.7
1.18Home runs / game1.08
4.4Walks drawn / game2.9
41−37Season record34−44
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · NYM chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10752%−11252.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+10748%−10751.8%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byNYM wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more31%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 15 Kstarted
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 2.77 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·NYM
Jun 24 at NYM
last game
Jun 24 vs CHC
same day
days of rest
same day
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
CHC·NYM
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.8
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
41−37
season record
34−44
23−17
home record
18−19
18−20
away record
16−25
W1
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.7
1.18
home runs / game
1.08
4.4
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.40
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

CHC · NYM · 91 days
Chicago CubsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jun 23at NYMCHC 9 − 6
Apr 19at CHCCHC 2 − 1
Apr 18at CHCCHC 4 − 2
Apr 17at CHCCHC 12 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at CHCNYM 8 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at CHCCHC 10 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CHCNYM 9 − 7
May 11, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 2
May 10, 2025at NYMCHC 6 − 5
May 9, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 2

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 23at NYM9 − 6W
Jun 20vs TOR6 − 8L
Jun 19vs TOR16 − 2W
Jun 17vs COL8 − 6W
Jun 16vs COL2 − 5L
Jun 15vs COL5 − 4W
Jun 14at SF1 − 5L
Jun 13at SF6 − 1W
Jun 12at SF5 − 1W
Jun 11at COL9 − 3W

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 23vs CHC6 − 9L
Jun 21at PHI2 − 6L
Jun 20at PHI3 − 15L
Jun 18at PHI6 − 4W
Jun 17at CIN9 − 1W
Jun 16at CIN3 − 5L
Jun 15at CIN0 − 12L
Jun 14vs ATL8 − 1W
Jun 13vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 12vs ATL7 − 5W