bayesRatings

Cubs at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final CHC 9 – NYM 6
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC050200020980
NYM020000103661
Team box
CHC·NYM
8
hits
6
2
home runs
2
7
walks
7
9
strikeouts
10
170
pitches thrown
186
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dansby SwansonCHC2-3114
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-4113
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-3113
Bo BichetteNYM2-4112
Carson KellyCHC1-2302
Carson BengeNYM1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Edward Cabrera (W)CHC5.03244
Kodai Senga (L)NYM3.23756

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +6
CHC +6
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · CHC 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 51%, NYM 49% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
CHC by 0.5
Expected score
CHC 4.7 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.8
CubsThe matchupMets
−104Our fair odds+104
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.04
4.8Runs / game4.0
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.17Home runs / game1.06
4.4Walks drawn / game2.9
40−37Season record34−43
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · NYM chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10451%−11653.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+10449%−10350.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.5
CHCChicago Cubs−0.5our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.5 expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byNYM wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more30%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 10.12 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYMKodai Senga RP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 11.70 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·NYM
Jun 20 vs TOR
last game
Jun 21 at PHI
2 days
days of rest
1 day
4
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
CHC·NYM
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.8
runs / game
4.0
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
40−37
season record
34−43
23−17
home record
18−18
17−20
away record
16−25
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.17
home runs / game
1.06
4.4
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.40
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

CHC · NYM · 90 days
Chicago CubsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Apr 19at CHCCHC 2 − 1
Apr 18at CHCCHC 4 − 2
Apr 17at CHCCHC 12 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at CHCNYM 8 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at CHCCHC 10 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CHCNYM 9 − 7
May 11, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 2
May 10, 2025at NYMCHC 6 − 5
May 9, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 2
Jun 23, 2024at CHCNYM 5 − 2

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 20vs TOR6 − 8L
Jun 19vs TOR16 − 2W
Jun 17vs COL8 − 6W
Jun 16vs COL2 − 5L
Jun 15vs COL5 − 4W
Jun 14at SF1 − 5L
Jun 13at SF6 − 1W
Jun 12at SF5 − 1W
Jun 11at COL9 − 3W
Jun 10at COL2 − 3L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 21at PHI2 − 6L
Jun 20at PHI3 − 15L
Jun 18at PHI6 − 4W
Jun 17at CIN9 − 1W
Jun 16at CIN3 − 5L
Jun 15at CIN0 − 12L
Jun 14vs ATL8 − 1W
Jun 13vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 12vs ATL7 − 5W
Jun 11vs STL5 − 4W