bayesRatings

Mets at Phillies

MLB · Thursday, Jun 18 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final NYM 6 – PHI 4
← MLB / Jun 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM2010003006113
PHI101100001471
Team box
NYM·PHI
11
hits
7
2
home runs
0
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
10
162
pitches thrown
173
3
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Juan SotoNYM2-4222
Marcus SemienNYM2-4002
Alec BohmPHI2-4002
Carson BengeNYM3-5100
A.J. EwingNYM2-3001
Eric WagamanNYM1-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean ManaeaNYM5.16215
Huascar Brazoban (W)NYM1.00011
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.01011
Aaron NolaPHI5.07216
Jose Alvarado (L)PHI1.03311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · NYM 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 45%, PHI 55% · Updated Jun 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.4 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.4
MetsThe matchupPhillies
+122Our fair odds−122
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating+0.10
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game7.6
1.04Home runs / game1.26
2.9Walks drawn / game3.0
33−41Season record40−34
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · PHI chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12245%+10548.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12255%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 12%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more38%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more27%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 4.22 ERA, 12 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·PHI
Jun 17 at CIN
last game
Jun 17 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
NYM·PHI
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.4
33−41
season record
40−34
18−18
home record
21−18
15−23
away record
19−16
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
7.6
1.04
home runs / game
1.26
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.53
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

NYM · PHI · 85 days
New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
Sep 11, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Sep 10, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at PHIPHI 9 − 3
Sep 8, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Aug 27, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 5
Aug 25, 2025at NYMNYM 13 − 3
Jun 22, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 1
Jun 21, 2025at PHINYM 11 − 4
Jun 20, 2025at PHIPHI 10 − 2

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 17at CIN9 − 1W
Jun 16at CIN3 − 5L
Jun 15at CIN0 − 12L
Jun 14vs ATL8 − 1W
Jun 13vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 12vs ATL7 − 5W
Jun 11vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 10vs STL2 − 9L
Jun 9vs STL0 − 7L
Jun 7at SD7 − 3W

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 17vs MIA4 − 12L
Jun 16vs MIA8 − 2W
Jun 15vs MIA7 − 0W
Jun 14at MIL0 − 4L
Jun 13at MIL9 − 8W
Jun 12at MIL0 − 6L
Jun 10at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 9at TOR2 − 3L
Jun 8at TOR5 − 2W
Jun 7vs CHW9 − 5W