bayesRatings

Mets at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 11:40 AM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final NYM 9 – CIN 1
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM0030400209152
CIN001000000151
Team box
NYM·CIN
15
hits
5
0
home runs
0
3
walks
2
4
strikeouts
9
132
pitches thrown
150
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Juan SotoNYM3-5202
Bo BichetteNYM3-4301
Francisco AlvarezNYM3-5101
Marcus SemienNYM2-4101
Mark VientosNYM1-4002
A.J. EwingNYM1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLean (W)NYM7.03019
Nick Lodolo (L)CIN4.211722

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +8
NYM +8
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · NYM 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 48%, CIN 52% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.5 – 4.4 CIN
Expected total
8.9
MetsThe matchupReds
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.04Power rating−0.06
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.3Allowed / game4.9
7.6Hits / game7.7
1.05Home runs / game1.31
2.9Walks drawn / game3.9
32−41Season record35−37
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · CIN chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:40 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10648%−14258.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10652%+11446.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCIN wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more37%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·CIN
Jun 16 at CIN
last game
Jun 16 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
NYM·CIN
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.9
32−41
season record
35−37
18−18
home record
19−18
14−23
away record
16−19
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
7.7
1.05
home runs / game
1.31
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.51
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

NYM · CIN · 84 days
New York MetsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 7−3
Jun 16at CINCIN 5 − 3
Jun 15at CINCIN 12 − 0
May 27at NYMNYM 4 − 2
May 26at NYMCIN 7 − 2
May 25at NYMCIN 7 − 2
Sep 7, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 5, 2025at CINNYM 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at NYMCIN 5 − 2

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 16at CIN3 − 5L
Jun 15at CIN0 − 12L
Jun 14vs ATL8 − 1W
Jun 13vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 12vs ATL7 − 5W
Jun 11vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 10vs STL2 − 9L
Jun 9vs STL0 − 7L
Jun 7at SD7 − 3W
Jun 6at SD2 − 3L

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 16vs NYM5 − 3W
Jun 15vs NYM12 − 0W
Jun 14vs ARI3 − 5L
Jun 13vs ARI2 − 1W
Jun 12vs ARI2 − 5L
Jun 10at SD4 − 5L
Jun 9at SD5 − 3W
Jun 8at SD2 − 6L
Jun 7at STL3 − 5L
Jun 6at STL5 − 6L