bayesRatings

Mets at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 16 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final NYM 3 – CIN 5
← MLB / Jun 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM001002000370
CIN40001000561
Team box
NYM·CIN
7
hits
6
1
home runs
2
6
walks
5
11
strikeouts
13
154
pitches thrown
168
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN2-3114
Mark VientosNYM1-2112
Spencer SteerCIN1-3111
Bo BichetteNYM2-5001
Tyler StephensonCIN1-3000
Blake DunnCIN1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kodai Senga (L)NYM4.02445
Brady Singer (W)CIN5.03135
Tony Santillan (S)CIN1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 4 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 49%, CIN 51% · Updated Jun 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.5 – 4.4 CIN
Expected total
8.9
MetsThe matchupReds
+105Our fair odds−105
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.04Power rating−0.06
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.3Allowed / game4.9
7.7Hits / game7.7
1.06Home runs / game1.30
2.8Walks drawn / game3.9
32−40Season record34−37
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · CIN chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10549%−12154.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10551%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCIN wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more28%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMKodai Senga RP · last 3 starts: 8.1 IP, 17.28 ERA, 7 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·CIN
Jun 15 at CIN
last game
Jun 15 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
NYM·CIN
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.9
32−40
season record
34−37
18−18
home record
18−18
14−22
away record
16−19
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
7.7
1.06
home runs / game
1.30
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.51
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

NYM · CIN · 83 days
New York MetsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 7−3
Jun 15at CINCIN 12 − 0
May 27at NYMNYM 4 − 2
May 26at NYMCIN 7 − 2
May 25at NYMCIN 7 − 2
Sep 7, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 5, 2025at CINNYM 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at NYMCIN 5 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at NYMCIN 8 − 4

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 15at CIN0 − 12L
Jun 14vs ATL8 − 1W
Jun 13vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 12vs ATL7 − 5W
Jun 11vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 10vs STL2 − 9L
Jun 9vs STL0 − 7L
Jun 7at SD7 − 3W
Jun 6at SD2 − 3L
Jun 5at SD5 − 0W

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 15vs NYM12 − 0W
Jun 14vs ARI3 − 5L
Jun 13vs ARI2 − 1W
Jun 12vs ARI2 − 5L
Jun 10at SD4 − 5L
Jun 9at SD5 − 3W
Jun 8at SD2 − 6L
Jun 7at STL3 − 5L
Jun 6at STL5 − 6L
Jun 5at STL3 − 10L