bayesRatings

Mets at Reds

MLB · Monday, Jun 15 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final NYM 0 – CIN 12
← MLB / Jun 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000000000060
CIN360000031290
Team box
NYM·CIN
6
hits
9
0
home runs
3
6
walks
5
11
strikeouts
6
152
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4226
JJ BledayCIN2-4214
Bo BichetteNYM3-5000
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4200
Sal StewartCIN1-4201
Blake DunnCIN1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tobias Myers (L)NYM1.14731
Chase Burns (W)CIN5.04037

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +12
NYM +12
123456789
largest lead: CIN 12 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Jun 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.7 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.9
MetsThe matchupReds
+101Our fair odds−101
4.7Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating−0.08
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.2Allowed / game5.0
7.7Hits / game7.7
1.07Home runs / game1.27
2.8Walks drawn / game3.9
32−39Season record33−37
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · CIN chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10150%+11446.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10150%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets−0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCIN wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more40%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more30%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMTobias Myers RP · last 3 starts: 6.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 6 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·CIN
Jun 14 vs ATL
last game
Jun 14 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
NYM·CIN
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.0
32−39
season record
33−37
18−18
home record
17−18
14−21
away record
16−19
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
2−8
7.7
hits / game
7.7
1.07
home runs / game
1.27
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.52
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

NYM · CIN · 82 days
New York MetsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 7−3
May 27at NYMNYM 4 − 2
May 26at NYMCIN 7 − 2
May 25at NYMCIN 7 − 2
Sep 7, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 5, 2025at CINNYM 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at NYMCIN 5 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at NYMCIN 8 − 4
Sep 8, 2024at NYMCIN 3 − 1

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 14vs ATL8 − 1W
Jun 13vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 12vs ATL7 − 5W
Jun 11vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 10vs STL2 − 9L
Jun 9vs STL0 − 7L
Jun 7at SD7 − 3W
Jun 6at SD2 − 3L
Jun 5at SD5 − 0W
Jun 3at SEA7 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jun 14vs ARI3 − 5L
Jun 13vs ARI2 − 1W
Jun 12vs ARI2 − 5L
Jun 10at SD4 − 5L
Jun 9at SD5 − 3W
Jun 8at SD2 − 6L
Jun 7at STL3 − 5L
Jun 6at STL5 − 6L
Jun 5at STL3 − 10L
Jun 3vs KC2 − 5L