bayesRatings

Mets at Phillies

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 6:20 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final NYM 2 – PHI 6
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM001001000261
PHI23001000690
Team box
NYM·PHI
6
hits
9
1
home runs
2
3
walks
3
14
strikeouts
7
146
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI3-4111
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-3213
Carson BengeNYM1-3211
A.J. EwingNYM2-4001
Edmundo SosaPHI1-3001
Luis TorrensNYM1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David Peterson (L)NYM4.06425
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI5.24237

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +5
NYM +5
123456789
largest lead: PHI 5 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 45%, PHI 55% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 4.5 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.5
MetsThe matchupPhillies
+124Our fair odds−124
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating+0.11
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.4Allowed / game4.4
7.8Hits / game7.8
1.07Home runs / game1.28
2.9Walks drawn / game2.9
34−42Season record41−35
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12445%+15239.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12455%−18364.6%———
SpreadPHI by 0.5
NYMNew York Mets+0.5our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.5 expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 9.22 ERA, 12 Kstarted
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·PHI
Jun 20 at PHI
last game
Jun 20 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
NYM·PHI
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
34−42
season record
41−35
18−18
home record
22−19
16−24
away record
19−16
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.8
1.07
home runs / game
1.28
2.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.57
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

NYM · PHI · 88 days
New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
Jun 20at PHIPHI 15 − 3
Jun 18at PHINYM 6 − 4
Sep 11, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Sep 10, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at PHIPHI 9 − 3
Sep 8, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Aug 27, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 5
Aug 25, 2025at NYMNYM 13 − 3
Jun 22, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 1

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 20at PHI3 − 15L
Jun 18at PHI6 − 4W
Jun 17at CIN9 − 1W
Jun 16at CIN3 − 5L
Jun 15at CIN0 − 12L
Jun 14vs ATL8 − 1W
Jun 13vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 12vs ATL7 − 5W
Jun 11vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 10vs STL2 − 9L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 20vs NYM15 − 3W
Jun 18vs NYM4 − 6L
Jun 17vs MIA4 − 12L
Jun 16vs MIA8 − 2W
Jun 15vs MIA7 − 0W
Jun 14at MIL0 − 4L
Jun 13at MIL9 − 8W
Jun 12at MIL0 − 6L
Jun 10at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 9at TOR2 − 3L