bayesRatings

Cubs at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 12:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final CHC 10 – NYM 3
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC0000330401090
NYM000300000370
Team box
CHC·NYM
9
hits
7
3
home runs
2
4
walks
3
14
strikeouts
9
146
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dansby SwansonCHC2-4227
Michael BuschCHC1-3112
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-3111
Jared YoungNYM1-2112
Michael ConfortoCHC1-4101
Carson BengeNYM2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Javier Assad (W)CHC5.05325
Nolan McLean (L)NYM6.07629

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +7
CHC +7
123456789
largest lead: NYM 3 · CHC 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 52%, NYM 48% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.9
CubsThe matchupMets
−107Our fair odds+107
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.05
4.8Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.3Hits / game7.7
1.18Home runs / game1.08
4.4Walks drawn / game2.9
41−37Season record34−44
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · NYM chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi51.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10752%−10751.8%———
NYMNew York Mets+10748%−10751.8%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byNYM wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more31%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJavier Assad RP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 9 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·NYM
Jun 23 at NYM
last game
Jun 23 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
CHC·NYM
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.8
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
41−37
season record
34−44
23−17
home record
18−19
18−20
away record
16−25
W1
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.7
1.18
home runs / game
1.08
4.4
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.40
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

CHC · NYM · 91 days
Chicago CubsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jun 23at NYMCHC 9 − 6
Apr 19at CHCCHC 2 − 1
Apr 18at CHCCHC 4 − 2
Apr 17at CHCCHC 12 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at CHCNYM 8 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at CHCCHC 10 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CHCNYM 9 − 7
May 11, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 2
May 10, 2025at NYMCHC 6 − 5
May 9, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 2

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 23at NYM9 − 6W
Jun 20vs TOR6 − 8L
Jun 19vs TOR16 − 2W
Jun 17vs COL8 − 6W
Jun 16vs COL2 − 5L
Jun 15vs COL5 − 4W
Jun 14at SF1 − 5L
Jun 13at SF6 − 1W
Jun 12at SF5 − 1W
Jun 11at COL9 − 3W

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 23vs CHC6 − 9L
Jun 21at PHI2 − 6L
Jun 20at PHI3 − 15L
Jun 18at PHI6 − 4W
Jun 17at CIN9 − 1W
Jun 16at CIN3 − 5L
Jun 15at CIN0 − 12L
Jun 14vs ATL8 − 1W
Jun 13vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 12vs ATL7 − 5W