bayesRatings

Phillies at Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final PHI 14 – WSH 9
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI00002013814171
WSH010400031981
Team box
PHI·WSH
17
hits
8
3
home runs
2
3
walks
4
12
strikeouts
17
143
pitches thrown
174
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Edmundo SosaPHI2-5215
Bryson StottPHI3-4413
Brandon MarshPHI3-6212
Jorbit VivasWSH2-3213
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-4103
Jose TenaWSH2-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus LuzardoPHI6.251313
Orion Kerkering (W)PHI1.02312
PJ PoulinWSH1.00001
Brad Lord (L)WSH0.25612

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +6
PHI +6
123456789
largest lead: WSH 5 · PHI 6lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 52%, WSH 48% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
PHI by 0.8
Expected score
PHI 5.6 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
10.4
PhilliesThe matchupNationals
−109Our fair odds+109
5.6Expected runs4.8
+0.10Power rating−0.06
4.2Runs / game5.3
4.3Allowed / game5.1
7.7Hits / game8.5
1.28Home runs / game1.30
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
42−36Season record41−38
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10952%−18364.6%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10948%+15239.6%———
SpreadPHI by 0.8
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.8our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.8 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 16 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byWSH wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more44%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more35%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 19 Kstarted
WSHPJ Poulin RP · last 3 starts: 4.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·WSH
Jun 22 at WSH
last game
Jun 22 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
PHI·WSH
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.2
runs / game
5.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
42−36
season record
41−38
23−19
home record
17−22
19−17
away record
24−16
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.5
1.28
home runs / game
1.30
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.47
errors / game
0.81

Rating Trend

PHI · WSH · 90 days
Philadelphia PhilliesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Jun 22at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Apr 1at PHIPHI 6 − 5
Mar 31at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Mar 30at PHIWSH 13 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2025at PHIWSH 5 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at WSHPHI 11 − 9
Aug 16, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Aug 15, 2025at WSHPHI 6 − 2

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 22at WSH1 − 4L
Jun 21vs NYM6 − 2W
Jun 20vs NYM15 − 3W
Jun 18vs NYM4 − 6L
Jun 17vs MIA4 − 12L
Jun 16vs MIA8 − 2W
Jun 15vs MIA7 − 0W
Jun 14at MIL0 − 4L
Jun 13at MIL9 − 8W
Jun 12at MIL0 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 22vs PHI4 − 1W
Jun 21at TB3 − 4L
Jun 20at TB4 − 3W
Jun 19at TB2 − 5L
Jun 17vs KC2 − 6L
Jun 16vs KC6 − 4W
Jun 15vs KC7 − 3W
Jun 14vs SEA10 − 1W
Jun 13vs SEA8 − 3W
Jun 12vs SEA2 − 10L