bayesRatings

Nationals at Rays

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 12:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final WSH 3 – TB 4
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH001101000360
TB001001204100
Team box
WSH·TB
6
hits
10
1
home runs
2
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
10
143
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonny DeLucaTB2-4112
CJ AbramsWSH2-4211
Ryan ViladeTB1-4111
Yandy DiazTB2-3101
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4000
Dylan CrewsWSH1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AlvarezWSH4.04106
Orlando Ribalta (L)WSH1.02212
Nick MartinezTB6.04335
Garrett Cleavinger (W)TB1.01002
Kevin Kelly (S)TB1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 1 · WSH 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, TB 54% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.8 – 4.3 WSH
Expected total
9.1
NationalsThe matchupRays
+119Our fair odds−119
4.3Expected runs4.8
−0.07Power rating+0.03
5.4Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game4.3
8.5Hits / game8.6
1.30Home runs / game0.82
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
40−37Season record42−31
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11946%+10947.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11954%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·TB
Jun 20 at TB
last game
Jun 20 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
WSH·TB
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.4
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.3
40−37
season record
42−31
16−22
home record
25−10
24−15
away record
17−21
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
8.6
1.30
home runs / game
0.82
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.81
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

WSH · TB · 88 days
Washington NationalsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 8−2
Jun 20at TBWSH 4 − 3
Jun 19at TBTB 5 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at WSHTB 7 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at WSHTB 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at WSHTB 4 − 1
Jun 30, 2024at TBTB 5 − 0
Jun 29, 2024at TBWSH 8 − 1
Jun 28, 2024at TBTB 3 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at WSHTB 7 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at WSHTB 10 − 6

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 20at TB4 − 3W
Jun 19at TB2 − 5L
Jun 17vs KC2 − 6L
Jun 16vs KC6 − 4W
Jun 15vs KC7 − 3W
Jun 14vs SEA10 − 1W
Jun 13vs SEA8 − 3W
Jun 12vs SEA2 − 10L
Jun 10at SF10 − 11L
Jun 9at SF6 − 3W

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 20vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 19vs WSH5 − 2W
Jun 17at LAD4 − 5L
Jun 16at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 15at LAD3 − 4L
Jun 14at LAA8 − 3W
Jun 13at LAA0 − 8L
Jun 12at LAA3 − 4L
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W
Jun 9vs BOS4 − 3W