bayesRatings

Nationals at Rays

MLB · Saturday, Jun 20 · 3:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final WSH 4 – TB 3
← MLB / Jun 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH0200100014100
TB1010000013100
Team box
WSH·TB
10
hits
10
2
home runs
0
0
walks
6
8
strikeouts
10
157
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dylan CrewsWSH2-4211
Junior CamineroTB3-3101
CJ AbramsWSH1-4111
Yandy DiazTB2-4101
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4001
Nasim NunezWSH2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade CavalliWSH2.26231
Mitchell Parker (W)WSH2.11012
Clayton Beeter (S)WSH1.01122
Ian Seymour (L)TB5.07304

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 1 · WSH 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 45%, TB 55% · Updated Jun 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.8 – 4.4 WSH
Expected total
9.2
NationalsThe matchupRays
+122Our fair odds−122
4.4Expected runs4.8
−0.07Power rating+0.04
5.4Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game4.3
8.4Hits / game8.6
1.29Home runs / game0.83
3.4Walks drawn / game3.6
39−37Season record42−30
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12245%+10149.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12255%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 7.71 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·TB
Jun 19 at TB
last game
Jun 19 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
WSH·TB
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.4
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.3
39−37
season record
42−30
16−22
home record
25−9
23−15
away record
17−21
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.6
1.29
home runs / game
0.83
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.82
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

WSH · TB · 87 days
Washington NationalsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 9−1
Jun 19at TBTB 5 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at WSHTB 7 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at WSHTB 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at WSHTB 4 − 1
Jun 30, 2024at TBTB 5 − 0
Jun 29, 2024at TBWSH 8 − 1
Jun 28, 2024at TBTB 3 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at WSHTB 7 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at WSHTB 10 − 6
Apr 3, 2023at WSHTB 6 − 2

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 19at TB2 − 5L
Jun 17vs KC2 − 6L
Jun 16vs KC6 − 4W
Jun 15vs KC7 − 3W
Jun 14vs SEA10 − 1W
Jun 13vs SEA8 − 3W
Jun 12vs SEA2 − 10L
Jun 10at SF10 − 11L
Jun 9at SF6 − 3W
Jun 8at SF4 − 3W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 19vs WSH5 − 2W
Jun 17at LAD4 − 5L
Jun 16at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 15at LAD3 − 4L
Jun 14at LAA8 − 3W
Jun 13at LAA0 − 8L
Jun 12at LAA3 − 4L
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W
Jun 9vs BOS4 − 3W
Jun 8vs BOS3 − 1W